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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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White Sox at Astros · Sep 30, 2026

White Sox
7
Final
Astros
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"White Sox 16% · tied 15% · Astros 69%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
7
3
Est. bases
10.2
14.3
Total bases
12
14
Home runs
1
3
Barrels
1
3
Walks/HBP
4
3
Strikeouts
13
15
GIDP
0
0
Stolen bases
3
0
Left on base
6
5
Errors
0
2

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Astros lead on deserved runs by 1.4.

Astros deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+4+1.4-4
White Sox deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Astros +0.3 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual White Sox +3Through inning 2: deserved Astros +1.6 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.4 deserved runs · actual White Sox +2Through inning 3: deserved Astros +1.7 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual White Sox +2Through inning 4: deserved Astros +2.4 (80% band +1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual White Sox +1Through inning 5: deserved Astros +3.2 (80% band +1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual White Sox +1Through inning 6: deserved Astros +1.1 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -2.1 deserved runs · actual White Sox +4Through inning 7: deserved Astros +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual White Sox +4Through inning 8: deserved Astros +1.6 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual White Sox +4Through inning 9: deserved Astros +1.4 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual White Sox +4123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualAstros sideWhite Sox side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

White Sox
Astros
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

White Sox
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

White Sox
Astros
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

White Soxpitching
Sean Burke4.0 IP · 16 BF · 8 K · 0 BB
4.5 bases cost

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.8 bases better than average on 26 pitches. The Slider got hit — 2 balls in play worth 6.4 expected bases.

Cutter8 thrown (11% tonight, season 10%) · 1 whiff
−0.7 bases saved
Huascar Brazobán0.3 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker6 thrown (38% tonight, season 50%)
−0.1 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (13% tonight, season 7%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Anthony Kay0.7 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Cutter2 thrown (18% tonight, season 16%)
+0.3 bases cost
Four-Seamer2 thrown (18% tonight, season 22%)
+0.2 bases cost
Sweeper2 thrown (18% tonight, season 24%)
+0.3 bases cost
Jordan Hicks2.0 IP · 6 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
2.4 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.6 bases better than average on 10 pitches. Overall 2.4 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper6 thrown (29% tonight, season 30%) · 2 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Four-Seamer5 thrown (24% tonight, season 21%) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Erick Fedde2.0 IP · 7 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.8 bases better than average on 19 pitches.

Cutter4 thrown (12% tonight, season 18%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Astrospitching
Hunter Brown0.7 IP · 9 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases cost

About an average night — +0.2 bases vs average on 9 batters.

Knuckle Curve5 thrown (14% tonight, season 18%)
+0.6 bases cost
Slurve3 thrown
0.0 bases
AJ Blubaugh1.3 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.7 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 7 pitches. Overall 1.7 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Changeup2 thrown (13% tonight, season 21%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Cutter1 thrown (7% tonight, season 5%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Peter Lambert3.0 IP · 11 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
1.7 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 15 pitches. Overall 1.7 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper3 thrown (6% tonight, season 8%)
+0.2 bases cost
Sinker2 thrown (4% tonight, season 10%)
0.0 bases
Bryan Abreu2.7 IP · 10 BF · 6 K · 1 BB
0.8 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.9 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 21 pitches.

Four-Seamer21 thrown (48% tonight, season 46%) · 4 whiffs
−1.1 bases saved
Josh Hader1.3 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.7 bases better than average on 16 pitches. Overall 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

White Sox
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Chase Meidroth hit it

Every ball Chase Meidroth hit this game, where it landed.

315'433'326'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

4 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP0 K102.0 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.9
PA 1 vs Hunter Brown: single — 1.0 deserved basesPA 2 vs Peter Lambert: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Bryan Abreu: home run — 3.9 deserved basesPA 4 vs Bryan Abreu: walk
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball75%

1.0 deserved bases on contact

Breaking21%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed4%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Bryan Abreu
BB
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.9
Hunter Brown
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Peter Lambert
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Daikin Park.

White Sox23 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
315'433'326'
Astros17 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
315'433'326'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Daikin Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information