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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Reds at D-backs · Aug 22, 2026

Reds
11
Final
D-backs
5
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Reds 89% · tied 4% · D-backs 7%
How win probability is simulated
  • The simulator replays this game ten thousand times, re-rolling every batted ball from its exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle.
  • Walks, strikeouts and baserunning stay as they happened.
  • The share of replays each team wins is how often it "deserved to win," whatever the real scoreboard said.
  • The gray slice, when there is one, is the share of replays still tied after nine innings.

Team comparison

Both teams' bars grow from the left edge, and longer means more of that stat.

Runs
11
5
Estimated bases
29.7
20.3
Total bases
33
18
Home runs
4
2
Barrels
7
4
Walks/HBP
6
3
Strikeouts
8
4
Double plays hit into
0
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
11
9
Errors
1
0
How to read this chart
Longer means more of that stat. More is better for runs, bases, home runs, barrels, walks and hit-by-pitches, and stolen bases. More is worse for strikeouts, double plays (GIDP), runners left on base and errors.

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end, the Reds lead on deserved runs by 4.9.

D-backs deserved lead ↑
-10-50-4.9-6
Reds deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Reds +0.0 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Reds +1Through inning 2: deserved Reds +0.1 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Reds +1Through inning 3: deserved Reds +1.2 (80% band -4.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Reds +3Through inning 4: deserved Reds +3.3 (80% band -7.0 to 0.0) · this inning -2.1 deserved runs · actual Reds +5Through inning 5: deserved Reds +3.6 (80% band -7.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Reds +5Through inning 6: deserved Reds +4.4 (80% band -8.0 to -1.0) · this inning -0.8 deserved runs · actual Reds +4Through inning 7: deserved Reds +6.6 (80% band -11.0 to -2.0) · this inning -2.2 deserved runs · actual Reds +6Through inning 8: deserved Reds +6.3 (80% band -11.0 to -2.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Reds +6Through inning 9: deserved Reds +4.9 (80% band -9.0 to 0.0) · this inning +1.4 deserved runs · actual Reds +6123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualD-backs sideReds side
How to read this chart
The dark line adds up the simulator's “deserved” run differential, one inning at a time. Above the dashed line D-backs deserved the lead, and below it Reds did. The darker band holds the middle 50% of simulations and the lighter band holds the middle 80%. The gray steps show the real score. The two numbers on the right are where each line finished.

Batting

Bases created

Bases created are estimated bases on contact plus one base per walk or hit-by-pitch.

Reds
D-backs
How to read this chart
Each bar is one hitter, ranked from most bases created to least, and longer is better. The number under a name is his plate appearances (PA). Bars are grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Each bar shows how many more bases a hitter created than a free bench bat would have.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free. Each bar shows how many more bases a hitter created than that bench bat would have in the same plate appearances. Bars on the “Above replacement” side beat it, and bars on the “Below replacement” side fell short. Because every hitter is measured against his own baseline, a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter share one scale.

Hitter batted-ball luck

Each batter's net luck is his actual bases on contact minus what that contact deserved.

Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
D-backs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” bases are estimated bases, what contact like that usually earns wherever it lands. A bar to the right means he got more than his contact deserved, and a bar to the left means less. Tap a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Bases given up are estimated bases on contact plus one per walk, so lower is better.

Reds
D-backs
How to read this chart
Each bar is one pitcher, sorted from most bases given up to least, and shorter is better. The number under a name is the batters he faced (BF). Bars are grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Each bar shows how many bases a pitcher saved compared with a free replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free. Each bar compares a pitcher with that arm facing the same batters, and a bar on the “Better” side means he allowed fewer bases than it would have. Starters and relievers get separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

The two staffs are compared row by row, and the longer bar is the bigger number.

How to read this chart
More is better for the pitchers on every row except walks and earned runs, where lower is better, and batters faced, which only counts the workload. Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see each pitcher’s line.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type earns bases saved or cost against an average pitcher in the same counts.

Redspitching
Rhett Lowder6.0 IP · 26 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
4.3 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Changeup, with 8 balls in play worth 5.3 expected bases. Overall, he was 4.3 bases worse than an average pitcher in the same counts.

Curveball6 thrown
+0.2 bases cost
Luis Mey1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

His Sinker was his best pitch, 0.9 bases better than average over 14 pitches.

Slider4 thrown (22% in this game, 37% this season)
+0.4 bases cost
Tony Santillan1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
1.1 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Four-Seamer, with 4 balls in play worth 1.9 expected bases.

Slider4 thrown (18% in this game, 9% this season) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Slurve3 thrown (14% in this game, 29% this season)
0.0 bases
Tejay Antone1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Sweeper, with 1 ball in play worth 2.1 expected bases. His Sinker was his best pitch, 1.2 bases better than average over 5 pitches.

Cutter4 thrown (25% in this game, 17% this season) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Curveball1 thrown (6% in this game, 12% this season)
+0.1 bases cost
D-backspitching
Michael Soroka3.1 IP · 20 BF · 3 K · 3 BB
3.8 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Four-Seamer, with 3 balls in play worth 4.6 expected bases. 6 of his 9 whiffs came on the Slurve.

Zack Littell3.2 IP · 21 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
9.2 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Slider, with 5 balls in play worth 5.9 expected bases. Overall, he was 9.2 bases worse than an average pitcher in the same counts.

Dennis Santana1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.9 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Slider, with 3 balls in play worth 3.7 expected bases. Overall, he was 1.9 bases worse than an average pitcher in the same counts.

Cutter2 thrown (15% in this game, 10% this season) · 2 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Changeup1 thrown (8% in this game, 14% this season)
+0.1 bases cost
Kevin Ginkel1.0 IP · 3 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.4 bases saved

He faced only 3 batters. His Slider was his best pitch, 0.7 bases better than average over 8 pitches.

Slider8 thrown (47% in this game, 48% this season) · 4 whiffs
−0.7 bases saved
Sinker7 thrown (41% in this game, 6% this season) · 2 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (12% in this game, 46% this season) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against an average pitcher in the same count. A strike, a whiff or weak contact beats that average, and a ball or hard contact falls short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher would allow, and “cost” means more, so saved is better.
  • The “Bases above replacement” board higher up measures the whole outing against a freely available fill-in arm, an easier bar, so the same outing scores a few bases better there.
  • Tap a pitch row to see the balls hit against it.

Pitcher batted-ball luck

Each pitcher's net luck is what his opponents' contact deserved minus the bases it got.

Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
D-backs
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” bases are estimated bases on his opponents' contact. A bar to the right means he allowed fewer bases than that contact deserved. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in. Lucky means hard contact found gloves. Tap a pitcher to see his biggest luck swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what he actually did. The cards show every ball he hit or allowed, every pitch he saw or threw, and how he did against each opponent.

Where Elly De La Cruz hit it

Each dot is a ball Elly De La Cruz hit in this game, drawn where it landed.

330'409'335'
Est. baseslowhigh

Actual vs. deserved bases

He finished even with what his contact deserved.

6 PA4 H0 BB0 HBP1 K115.2 mph Hardest hit

Bases, running totalActual: 8Deserved: 8.1
PA 1 vs Michael Soroka: double (1.9 deserved bases)PA 2 vs Michael Soroka: out (0.4 deserved bases)PA 3 vs Michael Soroka: single (1.0 deserved bases)PA 4 vs Zack Littell: home run (3.9 deserved bases)PA 5 vs Zack Littell: single (0.9 deserved bases)PA 6 vs Dennis Santana: strikeout
K
How to read this chart
The solid line adds up the bases he actually got, one plate appearance at a time. The dashed line adds up what his contact deserved, with estimated bases on balls in play and one base for each walk or hit-by-pitch. When the solid line finishes higher, he got more than his contact earned. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Each bar is his share of pitches seen by type, with the deserved bases he got on contact.

Breaking47%

4.2 deserved bases on contact

Fastball42%

3.8 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed11%

Matchups vs pitchers

Each row shows actual and deserved bases against one opponent, most deserved first.

Zack Littell
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.8
Michael Soroka
Actual
3.0
Deserved
3.3
Dennis Santana
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances. BB is a walk, HBP is a hit by pitch, K is a strikeout, and a dot is a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row. More bases is better for a hitter and worse for a pitcher.

Batted balls

These are all the balls put in play in this game, where each one landed, and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Each dot is one ball in play, split by team and drawn on Chase Field.

Reds35 balls in play · 6 walks or hit-by-pitches
330'409'335'
D-backs33 balls in play · 3 walks or hit-by-pitches
330'409'335'
Est. baseslowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
A bigger dot was hit harder. Color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate for an easy out to dark teal for home-run territory. Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. The Chase Field outfield wall is drawn from its real dimensions.

The table opens on the game's most valuable batted balls, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Higher estimated bases means better contact. Tap a row for its outcome odds and a Savant video link. Show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution