Zack Littell
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Littell is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.534 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 1st percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (82nd percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (1st percentile).
540 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Zack Littell.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Zack Littell | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .652 | .528 | 1st |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 7% | 9% | 82nd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 15% | 22% | 1st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Zack Littell mixes his slider (28%) and four-seam fastball (26%). His best pitch has been the sweeper, saving 0.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 317 bases vs a replacement arm's 300 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
74.7 bases cost vs league average, across 1,977 pitches — 3.8 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Zack Littell's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.044 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.036 to +0.053
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.542 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.524 to 0.560, based on 304 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.661 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.661) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.498 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.481 to 0.516, based on 239 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.495 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 13 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 7 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 27 fewer bases than their contact off Zack Littell earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 425 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.21 · WHIP 1.41 · BABIP against 0.268 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs GuardiansMay 25, 2026
27 BF · 7 K, 2 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.8
- Above replacement
- +6.2
- vs PadresMay 31, 2026
24 BF · 5 K, 2 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.0
- Above replacement
- +5.4
- vs D-backsJun 6, 2026
19 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 2 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 6.3
- Above replacement
- +4.3
- vs Blue JaysJul 29, 2026
20 BF · 2 K, 3 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.4
- Above replacement
- +3.7
- vs PiratesJul 4, 2026
21 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.3
- Above replacement
- +3.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Zack Littell
xEB/PA up, HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, GB% against down, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.