Tony Santillan
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Santillan is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.487 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 8th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (3rd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
140 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Tony Santillan.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Tony Santillan | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .676 | .528 | 8th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 25th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 51st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Tony Santillan leans on his four-seam fastball (65% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the four-seam fastball has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 79 bases vs a replacement arm's 72 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
17.4 bases cost vs league average, across 504 pitches — 3.5 per 100.
His slider isn't in the charts below — only 16 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Tony Santillan's pitch movement, 2026
His Slurve has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His slider isn't in these charts — only 16 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.511 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.489 to 0.532, based on 68 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.634 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.634) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.471 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.449 to 0.493, based on 72 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.506 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 fewer bases than their contact off Tony Santillan earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 94 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.34 · WHIP 1.44 · BABIP against 0.235 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs YankeesJun 21, 2026
6 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +2.6
- vs MetsJun 16, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.8
- vs BravesMay 30, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs TwinsApr 18, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs PhilliesMay 19, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Tony Santillan
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, GB% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.