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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Marlins at D-backs · Sep 16, 2026

Marlins
4
Final
D-backs
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Marlins 22% · tied 14% · D-backs 65%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
4
3
Est. bases
13.1
18.4
Total bases
14
20
Home runs
1
3
Barrels
2
4
Walks/HBP
4
2
Strikeouts
10
9
GIDP
1
1
Stolen bases
3
0
Left on base
9
7
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the D-backs lead on deserved runs by 1.4.

D-backs deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+1.4-1
Marlins deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved D-backs +0.3 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved D-backs +1.1 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Marlins +1Through inning 3: deserved Marlins +0.2 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning -1.3 deserved runs · actual Marlins +3Through inning 4: deserved D-backs +0.4 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual Marlins +3Through inning 5: deserved D-backs +1.1 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Marlins +2Through inning 6: deserved D-backs +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Marlins +2Through inning 7: deserved D-backs +0.8 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Marlins +2Through inning 8: deserved D-backs +1.3 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Marlins +1Through inning 9: deserved D-backs +1.4 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Marlins +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualD-backs sideMarlins side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Marlins
D-backs
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
D-backs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Marlins
D-backs
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Marlinspitching
Ryan Gusto4.3 IP · 22 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
4.1 bases cost

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.8 bases better than average on 33 pitches. The Slider got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.5 expected bases.

Changeup8 thrown (9% tonight, season 14%)
+0.1 bases cost
Cade Gibson1.7 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Sweeper4 thrown (17% tonight, season 28%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Four-Seamer2 thrown (9% tonight, season 5%)
+0.1 bases cost
Slider1 thrown (4% tonight, season 16%)
−0.1 bases saved
Jack Ralston2.0 IP · 7 BF · 4 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

His Splitter did the damage prevention — 2.2 bases better than average on 12 pitches. The Slider got hit — 1 ball in play worth 2.5 expected bases.

Four-Seamer13 thrown (42% tonight, season 19%) · 1 whiff
−0.6 bases saved
Sandy Alcantara1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
1.0 bases cost

About an average night — +1.0 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sinker4 thrown (31% tonight, season 26%)
+0.4 bases cost
Cutter3 thrown (23% tonight, season 15%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Changeup2 thrown (15% tonight, season 21%)
−0.2 bases saved
D-backspitching
Merrill Kelly4.7 IP · 23 BF · 9 K · 2 BB
even

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 28 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.0 expected bases.

Ryne Nelson1.3 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.5 bases cost

About an average night — +0.5 bases vs average on 7 batters.

Cutter1 thrown (3% tonight, season 10%)
+0.1 bases cost
Dennis Santana2.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 6 pitches. Overall 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Changeup3 thrown (19% tonight, season 14%)
0.0 bases
Sinker2 thrown (13% tonight, season 13%)
0.0 bases
Jonathan Loáisiga1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases cost

About an average night — +0.1 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (33% tonight, season 17%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
D-backs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Pavin Smith hit it

Every ball Pavin Smith hit this game, where it landed.

330'409'335'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −1.0 bases behind deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP0 K109.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 6.0
PA 1 vs Ryan Gusto: home run — 3.8 deserved basesPA 2 vs Ryan Gusto: single — 0.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Cade Gibson: out — 0.3 deserved basesPA 4 vs Sandy Alcantara: out — 1.0 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking50%

1.2 deserved bases on contact

Fastball38%

4.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed13%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Ryan Gusto
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.7
Sandy Alcantara
Actual
0.0
Deserved
1.0
Cade Gibson
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.3
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Chase Field.

Marlins26 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
330'409'335'
D-backs26 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
330'409'335'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Chase Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information