Ryne Nelson
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Nelson is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.489 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 6th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (87th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (6th percentile).
355 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
How to read this chart
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Ryne Nelson.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
How to read this chart
| Ryne Nelson | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .620 | .528 | 6th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 7% | 9% | 87th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 19% | 22% | 15th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Ryne Nelson leans on his four-seam fastball (57% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the cutter has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 188 bases vs a replacement arm's 198 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
28.1 bases cost vs league average, across 1,244 pitches — 2.3 per 100.
His sinker isn't in the charts below — only 48 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
How to read this chart
Mix by batter side
How to read this chart
Ryne Nelson's pitch movement, 2026
How to read this chart
By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sinker isn't in these charts — only 48 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.505 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.486 to 0.523, based on 186 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.578 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.578) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.464 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.446 to 0.483, based on 169 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.492 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 5 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 5 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
How to read this chart
Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 10 fewer bases than their contact off Ryne Nelson earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 264 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
How to read this chart
ERA 4.97 · WHIP 1.24 · BABIP against 0.252 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MetsApr 8, 2026
24 BF · 5 K, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.8
- Above replacement
- +8.5
- vs RockiesMay 24, 2026
31 BF · 3 K, 3 BB, 6 H
- Bases allowed
- 9.5
- Above replacement
- +7.7
- vs DodgersJun 4, 2026
26 BF · 3 K, 2 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.2
- Above replacement
- +7.3
- vs RangersMay 13, 2026
26 BF · 8 K, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 8.7
- Above replacement
- +5.7
- vs AngelsJun 15, 2026
29 BF · 5 K, 9 H, 1 HR, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 10.7
- Above replacement
- +5.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Ryne Nelson
HR allowed% up, K% down, Barrel% against up, GB% against down, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.