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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Phillies at Braves · Sep 12, 2026

Phillies
2
Final
Braves
12
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Phillies 2% · tied 3% · Braves 96%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
2
12
Est. bases
10.5
19.8
Total bases
9
22
Home runs
1
2
Barrels
1
2
Walks/HBP
0
6
Strikeouts
6
9
GIDP
2
2
Stolen bases
0
1
Left on base
3
7
Errors
2
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Braves lead on deserved runs by 4.8.

Braves deserved lead ↑
0+5+10+4.8+10
Phillies deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Phillies +0.8 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.8 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 2: deserved Phillies +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 3: deserved Phillies +1.0 (80% band -2.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 4: deserved Braves +1.9 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · this inning +2.9 deserved runs · actual Braves +7Through inning 5: deserved Braves +2.4 (80% band 0.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Braves +7Through inning 6: deserved Braves +2.6 (80% band 0.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Braves +8Through inning 7: deserved Braves +3.7 (80% band +1.0 to +7.0) · this inning +1.1 deserved runs · actual Braves +8Through inning 8: deserved Braves +5.3 (80% band +2.0 to +9.0) · this inning +1.5 deserved runs · actual Braves +10Through inning 9: deserved Braves +4.8 (80% band +1.0 to +8.0) · this inning -0.4 deserved runs · actual Braves +10123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualBraves sidePhillies side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Phillies
Braves
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Phillies
Grant Holman 7 BF
6.2
Braves
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Philliespitching
Tim Mayza3.0 IP · 9 BF · 4 K · 0 BB
2.3 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 13 pitches. Overall 2.3 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Brooks Raley0.7 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
1.9 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.2 expected bases. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Cutter.

Cutter11 thrown (41% tonight, season 29%) · 3 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Sinker6 thrown (22% tonight, season 21%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Changeup3 thrown (11% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Grant Holman0.3 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
3.0 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 4 balls in play worth 3.8 expected bases. Overall 3.0 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider2 thrown
−0.1 bases saved
Orion Kerkering1.3 IP · 9 BF · 2 K · 3 BB
0.6 bases cost

Struggled to find the zone (49% strikes).

Four-Seamer10 thrown (26% tonight, season 34%) · 1 whiff
+0.2 bases cost
Chase Shugart1.3 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.4 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Sinker3 thrown (19% tonight, season 29%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Sweeper2 thrown (13% tonight, season 21%)
+0.1 bases cost
Garrett Stubbs1.3 IP · 9 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
9.6 bases cost

The Slow Curve got hit — 5 balls in play worth 5.5 expected bases. Overall 9.6 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Bravespitching
Tyler Mahle7.0 IP · 25 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
2.8 bases saved

His Splitter did the damage prevention — 4.5 bases better than average on 37 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 6 balls in play worth 5.6 expected bases.

Brent Suter2.0 IP · 7 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.8 bases cost

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 14 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.8 expected bases.

Slider1 thrown (4% tonight, season 13%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Michael Harris II hit it

Every ball Michael Harris II hit this game, where it landed.

335'407'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +1.2 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA4 H0 BB0 HBP0 K106.2 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 5.8
PA 1 vs Tim Mayza: single — 0.7 deserved basesPA 2 vs Brooks Raley: single — 0.5 deserved basesPA 3 vs Orion Kerkering: single — 0.6 deserved basesPA 4 vs Chase Shugart: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 5 vs Garrett Stubbs: home run
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball65%

0.7 deserved bases on contact

Breaking18%

0.5 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed18%

0.6 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Garrett Stubbs
Actual
4.0
Deserved
4.0
Tim Mayza
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.7
Orion Kerkering
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.6
Brooks Raley
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.5
Chase Shugart
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Truist Park.

Phillies25 BIP · 0 BB/HBP
335'407'325'
Braves28 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
335'407'325'

1 not shown (no location)

EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Truist Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information