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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Tyler Mahle

2026
Braves· RHP · throws R· 149.0 IP· 3.99 ERA· 1.23 WHIP· 614 batters faced
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Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Abetter than 81% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Mahle is comfortably above average at limiting bases

The simulator expects him to allow 0.433 bases per batter faced, better than 81% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting walks (74th percentile).

His grade rests on 614 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Tyler Mahle.

Landen RouppGiantsWilber DotelPiratesRico GarciaOriolesJack DreyerDodgers

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Pitcher type

He lands in the “Misses bats, limits hard contact” corner of the map.

League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Tyler MahleLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).488.527—
Walk rate(lower = better)8%9%74th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)22%22%52nd

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Tyler Mahle leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 2.5 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+104 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 256 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 360 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He saved 20.9 bases against league average across 2,385 pitches, or 0.9 per 100 pitches.

Four-Seam Fastball
48%
92.8 mph · RHP median 95.1
23% whiffs · Lg median 21%
saved 1.1 per 10012.4 total
Splitter
30%
86.3 mph · RHP median 86.9
26% whiffs · Lg median 34%
saved 1.0 per 1007.3 total
Cutter
15%
87.8 mph · RHP median 90.1
14% whiffs · Lg median 22%
saved 2.5 per 1008.9 total
Slider
7%
85.1 mph · RHP median 86.9
23% whiffs · Lg median 33%
cost 4.8 per 1007.7 total

He rarely throws his sinker (1% of his pitches).

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
49% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
47% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Splitter
35% vs LHH · RHP median 32%
23% vs RHH · RHP median 16%
Cutter
15% vs LHH · RHP median 20%
15% vs RHH · RHP median 19%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 45 and 384 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Tyler Mahle's pitch movement, 2026

His Cutter and Slider have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.

The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.

Tyler Mahle's pitch movement, 2026-60612061218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 16.9 in
+1.2 vs Lg median
Break 11.9 in
+4.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SplitterFS
Rise 3.7 in
+1.3 vs Lg median
Break 14.1 in
+3.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CutterFC
Rise 9.1 in
+1.4 vs Lg median
Break 0.2 in
+2.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
SliderSL
Rise −1.7 in
−3.5 vs Lg median
Break −2.5 in
+1.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.039 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.046

vs LHB339 PA0.453

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.453 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.437 to 0.469, based on 339 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.393 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB276 PA0.415

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.415 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.398 to 0.431, based on 276 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.447 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.3890.4110.4330.4550.477
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042).

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Tyler Mahle this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Josh BellHome run
110 mph · 30° · worth 3.9 bases
08/18 vs Twins
vs Elly De La CruzHome run
109 mph · 30° · worth 3.9 bases
04/15 vs Reds
vs Elly De La CruzHome run
108 mph · 25° · worth 3.8 bases
09/24 vs Reds
vs Carlos JorgeHome run
101 mph · 32° · worth 3.8 bases
09/24 vs Reds
vs Freddy FerminHome run
104 mph · 25° · worth 3.7 bases
08/01 vs Padres

Luck check

One out behind him came on a ball the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Ryan McMahonOutLucky out
100 mph · 24° · worth 1.7 bases
03/28 vs Yankees
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about 16 more bases than their contact off Tyler Mahle deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.

Deserved by the contact he allowed208
Actually credited to batters224

Both bars count 426 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 3.99 · WHIP 1.23 · BABIP against 0.291 (Lg median 0.286)

Times through the order

These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Tyler Mahle

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is down, his K% is up, his GB% against is up, his FB% against is down and his Pull% against is up.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.