Tyler Mahle
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Mahle is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.436 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 73rd percentile of qualified pitchers.
473 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
How to read this chart
Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Tyler Mahle.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
How to read this chart
| Tyler Mahle | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .498 | .528 | 73rd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 57th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 23% | 22% | 57th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Tyler Mahle leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 2.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 201 bases vs a replacement arm's 263 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
11.9 bases saved vs league average, across 1,822 pitches — 0.7 per 100.
Rarely used: sinker (1%)
How to read this chart
Mix by batter side
How to read this chart
Tyler Mahle's pitch movement, 2026
His Cutter and Slider have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
How to read this chart
By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.036 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.044
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.455 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.438 to 0.473, based on 256 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.386 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.386) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.419 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.401 to 0.436, based on 218 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.473 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040).
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 12 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
How to read this chart
Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 18 more bases than their contact off Tyler Mahle earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 321 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
How to read this chart
ERA 4.53 · WHIP 1.31 · BABIP against 0.302 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs DodgersApr 22, 2026
26 BF · 5 K, 2 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.0
- Above replacement
- +7.5
- vs RaysMay 3, 2026
22 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.2
- Above replacement
- +7.0
- vs BrewersJul 27, 2026
20 BF · 3 K, 2 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.0
- Above replacement
- +6.2
- vs PhilliesApr 8, 2026
24 BF · 6 K, 4 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.8
- Above replacement
- +5.5
- vs PiratesMay 10, 2026
24 BF · 8 K, 2 BB, 5 H, 2 HR
- Bases allowed
- 8.0
- Above replacement
- +5.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Tyler Mahle
HR allowed% up, K% up, FB% against down, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.