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Rafael Marchán

2026
Phillies· C · bats S · throws R· 92 PA
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Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 10% of hitters at creating bases

He's running below his established level this season — there's room to rebound.

Free-Swinging Contact

Bat-to-ball first, seldom walks, light power.

One of the toughest bats to strike out

Rafael Marchán rarely strikes out — less often than 86% of qualified hitters. The contact is soft, though — only 3% of qualified hitters hit the ball with less authority. Early-season read — only 92 plate appearances so far.

92 plate appearances · data through 2026-08-22.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size — not raw season stats — so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. Percentiles vs. 499 qualified hitters — 50+ plate appearances.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Rafael Marchán.

Nick FortesRaysBen WilliamsonRaysJavier BáezTigersOrlando ArciaTwins

Hitter type

What kind of hitter he is, next to the league

Hitter type

Weak contact quality.

How to read this chart
Two skills separate hitting styles: not giving away at-bats (walk rate minus strikeout rate) and squaring the ball up when he does put it in play (hard-hit rate). Every dot is a qualified hitter this season; dot size tracks plate appearances. Click any dot to open that hitter's page.
 Rafael MarchánLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(higher = better).294.50810th
Walk rate(higher = better)2%8%4th
Strikeout rate(lower = better)15%23%86th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA)

Better vs RHP than vs LHP by 0.017 EB/PA (modeled).

50% probable range: -0.004 to +0.038

That interval crosses zero, so the model can’t confidently say which side he’s actually better against.

vs LHP29 PA0.362

vs LHP: shrunk estimate 0.362 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.335 to 0.390, based on 29 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.226 EB/PA. League median vs LHP: 0.425 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHP rate (0.226) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHP63 PA0.378

vs RHP: shrunk estimate 0.378 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.355 to 0.404, based on 63 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.305 EB/PA. League median vs RHP: 0.436 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHP rate (0.305) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.3230.3540.3850.4170.448
← worsebetter →
Above league medianBelow50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a switch hitter (median 0.015). He sits below the league median against both hands.

He sits in the league's bottom quarter vs both lefties and righties.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that hand — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all hitters against that hand.
  • Rafael Marchán switch-hits — he can choose the platoon-advantaged side almost every plate appearance, so a small gap here is expected. It is not missing data or a modeling error.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits decisively at low PA counts and converge with them as playing time builds — individual platoon gaps need roughly 1,000+ PA vs a hand before the raw number alone can be trusted.

How he hits

What happens when he puts a ball in play

He hits the ball to the pull side most often, and that's where his hardest contact goes.

Best batted balls

Where every ball Rafael Marchán put in play landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs David SandlinHome run
EV 101 mph · LA 24° · EB 3.1
06/07 vs White Sox
vs Christian ScottOutRobbed
EV 97 mph · LA 30° · EB 2.7
06/27 vs Mets
vs Foster GriffinHome run
EV 98 mph · LA 26° · EB 2.4
03/30 vs Nationals
vs Colin ReaSingle
EV 93 mph · LA 17° · EB 1.1
04/20 vs Cubs
vs Dennis SantanaSingle
EV 90 mph · LA 15° · EB 1.0
05/15 vs Pirates

Luck check

Robbed once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit that died in a glove.

vs Christian ScottOutRobbed
EV 97 mph · LA 30° · EB 2.7
06/27 vs Mets

1 lucky hit — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass.

vs Yoshinobu YamamotoSingleLucky
EV 68 mph · LA -46° · EB 0.2 · xBA .190
05/31 vs Dodgers
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball that got caught. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Performance by pitch type

2026 · 362 pitches

Bases he adds per 100 pitches of each type, against the league.

← below leagueabove league →
Four-Seam Fastball (162 pitches)
−2.6
Lg median −0.4Lg best +12.9
Slider (52 pitches)
−5.8
Lg median −0.5Lg best +13.2
Other (148 pitches)

−5.9 bases per 100 · no single-type league comparison

Above league medianBelowMiddle half of the leagueLg medianLg best
How to read this chart
Bases added per 100 pitches of each type — the same scale as the pitcher pages’ “saved/cost per 100”, from the hitter’s side. Every pitch counts: taking a ball adds value, whiffing loses it, and the pitch that ends the plate appearance scores its outcome against the count’s expectation. Values are bases vs the league count-average: +3.5 means his results against that pitch have been worth about 3.5 extra bases per 100 seen. Types with fewer than 50 pitches seen pool into “Other”.

Earned vs. actual

Rafael Marchán's contact has earned about 7 more bases than he's actually been credited — his results have run unlucky so far.

Earned off his own contact22
Actually credited to him15

over 74 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball he puts in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases he was actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

Swing

How fast he swings, and what he changes with two strikes. League tracking starts in 2024.

Swing at a glance

2026 · data through 2026-08-22
Bat speed · 171 swings
65.5 mph
Lg median 71.1 mph
Slowest: S. Kwan (61.9 mph)Fastest: J. Caminero (78.7 mph)

Batting left

Lg median

Swings slower than most hitters. His swing length is typical, but his attack angle is steeper than most. Cuts his swing down about as much as most hitters with two strikes. Batting left, his bat travels on a fairly typical path; batting right, a steeper path than most.

Attack angle
12.6°
Lg median 9.4°
Swing length
7.5 ft
Lg median 7.3 ft
Swing path tilt
34.9°
Lg median 32.4°
Middle half of the league
How to read this chart
  • Competitive swings: bunts and checked-type swings under 50 mph are excluded, so these numbers sit a touch below the bat speeds Savant publishes, which use a different cut.
  • League tracking starts in 2024, and early 2024 has small gaps — about 93% of swings that season have a reading.
  • Swing length — how far the sweet spot of the bat travels during the swing.
  • Attack angle — the bat’s upward or downward tilt through the zone.
  • Swing path tilt — how steep the bat’s path is.
  • None of these is better or worse on its own — swing style trades power against contact (the fastest and slowest swings in the league both belong to stars).

How he sets up

Where he stands in the box and how his feet are set, next to the league-average setup.

How he sets up

A typical setup — close to league average in depth, off-plate distance, width, and angle.

Top-down batting stance vs league averagePitcher ↑

Month by month this season, from his setup about a second before each pitch.

Middle half of the leagueLg median
His feetLg avg
How to read this chart
  • Overhead view of the batter’s box. The dots are his feet, reconstructed from Statcast’s stance measurements — hip position, foot separation, and stance angle — about one second before the pitch. It’s an approximation of his setup, not his stride or swing.
  • Open means his front foot is pulled off the line to the plate; closed means it steps toward it. The average hitter sets up slightly open.
  • The change line above only appears for a sustained month-over-month move that clears normal Statcast noise by a wide margin.
  • The chart is his month-by-month average for whichever measure you pick, this season only. A month needs 25 tracked swings to appear, so an injured or platooned month can be missing. The shaded band and dashed line are where the middle half of hitters, and the median hitter, sat over their whole season.
  • On the angle chart, below zero is an open stance and above zero is a closed one — hover a point (or drag on a phone) and it says which in words.
  • Data through 2026-08-22.

Best games

His biggest games this year

Best games

His best games this season by bases above replacement.

Multi-season trends · Rafael Marchán

HR% up, BB% down, Barrel% down, Hard-hit% down, GB% down, FB% up vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.