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Rafael Marchán

2026
Phillies· C · bats S · throws R· 95 plate appearances
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Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 10% of hitters at creating bases

He's running below his established level this season, so he has room to rebound.

Free-Swinging Contact

Bat-to-ball first, seldom walks, light power.

One of the toughest bats to strike out

Rafael Marchán rarely strikes out. He strikes out less often than 85% of qualified hitters. Walks are scarce, though. Only 2% of qualified hitters draw them less often. This is an early read, on only 95 plate appearances so far.

95 plate appearances · data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. EB/PA is estimated bases, HR% home runs, BB% walks and K% strikeouts, each per plate appearance, and Hard-hit% is balls hit 95 mph or harder. Percentiles compare him with 534 qualified hitters, the ones with 50 or more plate appearances.

Plays like…

Each of these hitters shares his archetype and sits closest to him in EB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Rafael Marchán.

Sebastián RiveroAngelsMyles StrawBlue JaysNicky LopezRangersJoey OrtizBrewers

Hitter type

See what kind of hitter he is, next to the rest of the league.

Hitter type

He hits the ball hard far less often than most.

League best:BB% − K% Josue De Paula (14.3%)Hard-hit% Yohandy Morales (62.5%)

How to read this chart
Two skills separate hitting styles: not giving away at-bats (walk rate minus strikeout rate) and squaring the ball up (hard-hit rate). Up and to the right is better on both. Every dot is a hitter with at least 40 plate appearances this season, and dot size tracks plate appearances. Click any dot to open that hitter's page.
 Rafael MarchánLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(higher = better).287.511—
Walk rate(higher = better)2%8%2nd
Strikeout rate(lower = better)16%23%85th

A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.

Platoon splits

See how he hits left-handed and right-handed pitchers.

Platoon splits (EB/PA)

He hits righties better than lefties, by 0.028 EB/PA.

50% probable range: +0.002 to +0.052

vs LHP30 PA0.354

vs LHP: shrunk estimate 0.354 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.323 to 0.381, based on 30 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.219 EB/PA. League median vs LHP: 0.424 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs LHP (0.219) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

vs RHP65 PA0.382

vs RHP: shrunk estimate 0.382 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.357 to 0.408, based on 65 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.297 EB/PA. League median vs RHP: 0.433 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHP (0.297) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.3090.3440.3780.4120.446
← worsebetter →
Above league medianBelow50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a switch hitter (median 0.023). He sits below the league median against both hands.

He sits in the league's bottom quarter vs both lefties and righties.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that hand, with its 50% probable range as the bar. Higher is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of hitters with 50 or more plate appearances.
  • Rafael Marchán switch-hits, so he can choose the platoon-advantaged side almost every plate appearance. A small gap is expected.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHP and RHP are left- and right-handed pitchers. More on the About page

How he hits

See what his contact is worth and what pitchers throw him.

He hits the ball to the pull side most often, and that's where he does the most damage.

Best batted balls

Every ball Rafael Marchán put in play this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs David SandlinHome run
101 mph · 24° · worth 3.1 bases
06/07 vs White Sox
vs Christian ScottOutUnlucky out
97 mph · 30° · worth 2.7 bases
06/27 vs Mets
vs Foster GriffinHome run
98 mph · 26° · worth 2.4 bases
03/30 vs Nationals
vs Colin ReaSingle
93 mph · 17° · worth 1.1 bases
04/20 vs Cubs
vs Dennis SantanaSingle
90 mph · 15° · worth 1.0 bases
05/15 vs Pirates

Luck check

One of his outs came on a ball the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Christian ScottOutUnlucky out
97 mph · 30° · worth 2.7 bases
06/27 vs Mets
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball that got caught. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Performance by pitch type

2026 · 370 pitches

Each row shows the bases he adds per 100 pitches of one type, against the league.

← below league medianabove league median →
Four-Seam Fastball (167 pitches)
−2.8
Lg median −0.4Lg best +8.7
Slider (52 pitches)
−5.8
Lg median −0.5Lg best +12.2
Other (151 pitches)

−6.3 bases per 100 · no single-type league comparison

Above league medianBelowMiddle half of the leagueLg medianLg best
How to read this chart
Each row is the bases he adds per 100 pitches of that type, on the same scale as the pitcher pages’ “saved/cost per 100” but from the hitter’s side. Every pitch counts. Taking a ball adds value, whiffing loses it, and the pitch that ends the plate appearance scores its outcome against what that count usually produces. A value of +3.5 means his results against that pitch have been worth about 3.5 extra bases per 100 seen. Higher is better. Types with fewer than 50 pitches seen pool into “Other”.

Deserved vs. actual

Rafael Marchán's contact has earned about 7 more bases than he has been credited with. His results have run unlucky so far.

Deserved by his own contact22
Actually credited to him15

Both bars count only his 76 balls in play, so walks and strikeouts are left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball he puts in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually earn. If the second bar is longer than the first, his results have run ahead of his contact and he has been lucky. If it is shorter, he has been unlucky.

Swing

See how fast he swings and what he changes with two strikes. League tracking starts in 2024.

Swing at a glance

2026 · data through 2026-09-27
Bat speed · 175 swings
65.5 mph
Lg median 71.1 mph
Slowest: S. Kwan (61.8 mph)Fastest: J. Caminero (78.4 mph)

Batting left

Lg median

He swings slower than most hitters. His swing length is typical, but his attack angle is steeper than most. With two strikes, he cuts his bat speed about as much as most hitters. Batting left, his bat travels on a fairly typical path. Batting right, it travels on a steeper path than most.

Attack angle
12.7°
Lg median 9.6°
Swing length
7.5 ft
Lg median 7.3 ft
Swing path tilt
34.8°
Lg median 32.4°
Middle half of the league
How to read this chart
  • Bat speed counts competitive swings only, so bunts and check swings under 50 mph are left out.
  • Swing length is how far the sweet spot of the bat travels during the swing. Attack angle is the bat’s upward or downward tilt through the zone.
  • Swing path tilt is how steep the bat’s path is.
  • None of these is better or worse on its own. Swing style trades power against contact, and the fastest and slowest swings in the league both belong to stars. More on the About page

How he sets up

See where he stands in the box and how his feet are set, next to the league-average setup.

How he sets up

His setup is typical, near the league average in depth, plate distance, width and angle.

Top-down batting stance vs league averagePitcher ↑

Each point is his average setup for one month this season, about a second before each pitch.

Middle half of the leagueLg median
His feetLg avg
How to read this chart
  • This is an overhead view of the batter’s box. The dots are his feet about one second before the pitch, and the rings are the league-average setup.
  • Open means his front foot is pulled off the line to the plate, and closed means it steps toward it. Neither is better or worse.
  • The chart is his monthly average this season. The band and dashed line are the middle half and the median of hitters over the whole season.
  • On the angle chart, below zero is open and above zero is closed.
  • Data through 2026-09-27. More on the About page

Best games

These are his biggest games this season.

Best games

These are his best games this season, ranked by bases above replacement.

Multi-season trends · Rafael Marchán

Compared with last season, his HR% is up, his BB% is down, his Barrel% is down, his Hard-hit% is down, his GB% is down and his FB% is up.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.