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Nationals at Phillies · Mar 30, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Nationals 48% · tied 13% · Phillies 40%

Nationals edged it

The simulator saw a near coin flip, and Nationals came out ahead of Phillies 13-2.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.