How win probability is simulated
- Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
- It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.
Team comparison
Numbers flank the metric label; bars grow outward from center, scaled within each row.Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.
CubsOrioles
Batting
Bases created
Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).
CubsOriolesCubsHow to read this chart
Bases above replacement
Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.
How to read this chart
Batting luck diagnostic
Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.
CubsOriolesHow to read this chart
Pitching
Bases given up
Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).
CubsOriolesHow to read this chart
Bases above replacement
Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.
How to read this chart
Pitching matchup
Each staff’s pitchers side by side.
Cubs pitchersOrioles pitchersHow to read this chart
How each pitcher performed
Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.
CubspitchingThe Sinker got hit — 9 balls in play worth 5.4 expected bases. 3 of his 7 whiffs came on the Sinker.
Struggled to find the zone (54% strikes).
Faced only 2 batters.
Faced only 3 batters.
About an average night — +1.2 bases vs average on 4 batters.
OriolespitchingThe Changeup got hit — 6 balls in play worth 5.7 expected bases. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 13 pitches.
About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 4 batters.
His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 7 pitches. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Changeup.
His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 8 pitches.
How to read this chart
- Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
- “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
- This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
- Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.
Pitching luck diagnostic
Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.
CubsOriolesHow to read this chart
Player spotlight
Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.
Where Seiya Suzuki hit it
Every ball Seiya Suzuki hit this game, where it landed.
Cumulative bases through the game
Finished +3.1 bases ahead of deserved.
4 PA3 H0 BB0 HBP0 K110.9 mph Hardest hit
How to read this chart
Pitch mix
Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.
3.8 deserved bases on contact
0.1 deserved bases on contact
Matchups vs pitchers
Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.
How to read this chart
Batted balls
Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.
Where every ball landed
Every ball in play, split by team, on Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Cubs29 BIP · 2 BB/HBPOrioles21 BIP · 9 BB/HBPHow to read this chart
The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.