Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All pitchers·All hitters

Tyler Ferguson

2026
Cubs· RHP · throws R· 18.2 IP· 5.30 ERA· 1.02 WHIP· 78 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Cbetter than 44% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Ferguson has been below average at limiting bases

The simulator expects him to allow 0.457 bases per batter faced, better than 44% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is getting strikeouts (72nd percentile). His weakest skill is limiting home runs (3rd percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 78 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Tanner BanksPhilliesConnelly EarlyNationalsJordan RomanoRockiesTim HerrinGuardians

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Tyler Ferguson leans on his four-seam fastball (46% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet, and the sweeper has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+5 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 36 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 41 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 4.6 bases against league average across 197 pitches, or 2.3 per 100 pitches.

Four-Seam Fastball
46%
95.5 mph · RHP median 95.1
27% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 2.9 per 1004.0 total
Sweeper
21%
84.1 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
cost 1.0 per 1000.6 total
Sinker
not charted
10%
95.6 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
—
Cutter
not charted
9%
87.3 mph · RHP median 90.1
—
—
Slider
not charted
8%
83.3 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
—
Changeup
not charted
6%
86.7 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball and sweeper are in the charts below, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
52% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
42% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from the 384 right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Tyler Ferguson's pitch movement, 2026

His Sweeper has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.

The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.

Tyler Ferguson's pitch movement, 2026-12-606061218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 13.7 in
−2.0 vs Lg median
Break 7.5 in
−0.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SweeperST
Rise 2.8 in
+1.7 vs Lg median
Break −11.3 in
+2.5 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. Only his four-seam fastball and sweeper are in these charts, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.043 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.035 to +0.051

vs LHB33 PA0.445

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.445 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.423 to 0.468, based on 33 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.704 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs LHB (0.704) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

vs RHB45 PA0.402

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.402 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.380 to 0.425, based on 45 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.315 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.315) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.3700.3970.4240.4520.479
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so even his weaker side is a strength.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Tyler Ferguson this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Jordan WalkerHome run
109 mph · 26° · worth 3.9 bases
07/05 vs Cardinals
vs Bryson StottHome run
104 mph · 33° · worth 3.8 bases
05/05 vs Phillies
vs Brett SullivanHome run
104 mph · 24° · worth 3.3 bases
06/11 vs Rockies
vs Dillon DinglerHome run
97 mph · 31° · worth 3.1 bases
07/20 vs Tigers
vs Bryce HarperHome run
107 mph · 34° · worth 2.2 bases
05/05 vs Phillies

Luck check

One out behind him came on a ball the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Max MuncyOutLucky out
107 mph · 19° · worth 2.1 bases
08/05 vs Dodgers
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about 6 more bases than their contact off Tyler Ferguson deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.

Deserved by the contact he allowed30
Actually credited to batters36

Both bars count 50 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 5.30 · WHIP 1.02 · BABIP against 0.204 (Lg median 0.286)

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Tyler Ferguson

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is down, his K% is up, his Barrel% against is up, his Hard-hit% against is up, his GB% against is down and his FB% against is up.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.