Tyler Ferguson
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Ferguson sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.453 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 51st percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (95th percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (3rd percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
70 batters faced · data through 2026-08-30.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Tyler Ferguson leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the sweeper has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 33 bases vs a replacement arm's 36 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
4.2 bases cost vs league average, across 175 pitches — 2.4 per 100.
Only his four-seam fastball and sweeper are in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
How to read this chart
Mix by batter side
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Tyler Ferguson's pitch movement, 2026
His Sweeper has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
How to read this chart
By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball and sweeper are in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.043 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.051
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.480 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.457 to 0.501, based on 29 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.727 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.727) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.438 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.416 to 0.460, based on 41 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.319 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.434 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.319) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MetsJun 24, 2026
6 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +1.8
- vs TwinsJul 17, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs CardinalsJul 28, 2026
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs OriolesJul 7, 2026
3 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +0.9
- vs TigersJul 22, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.7
- Above replacement
- +0.8
Trends
Multi-season trends · Tyler Ferguson
HR allowed% up, BB% down, K% up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.