Tyler Wells
2026Grade
Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Wells is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.420 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 88th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (87th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
248 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Tyler Wells.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Tyler Wells | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .470 | .528 | 88th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 7% | 9% | 83rd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 24% | 22% | 66th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Tyler Wells mixes his cutter (29%) and four-seam fastball (29%). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 5.7 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 33% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 97 bases vs a replacement arm's 127 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
15.4 bases saved vs league average, across 914 pitches — 1.7 per 100.
His curveball isn't in the charts below — only 43 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Tyler Wells's pitch movement, 2026
His Cutter has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His curveball isn't in these charts — only 43 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.045
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.449 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.429 to 0.469, based on 141 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.351 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.351) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.412 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.391 to 0.431, based on 107 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.443 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 6 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Tyler Wells.
over 168 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.70 · WHIP 0.98 · BABIP against 0.237 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MarinersJun 11, 2026
10 BF · 4 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.5
- Above replacement
- +3.6
- vs GuardiansApr 19, 2026
6 BF · 5 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +2.8
- vs PiratesApr 3, 2026
6 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +2.6
- vs White SoxJul 1, 2026
6 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +2.6
- vs NationalsMay 17, 2026
9 BF · 2 K, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.2
- Above replacement
- +2.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Tyler Wells
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% up, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, FB% against down, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.