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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jun 11, 2026
Mariners
5
Final
Orioles
7
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Mariners 49% · tied 16% · Orioles 35%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
7
Est. bases
14.4
12.2
Total bases
18
14
Home runs
3
2
Barrels
2
2
Walks/HBP
4
4
Strikeouts
9
7
GIDP
1
1
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
8
3
Errors
0
1

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Mariners
Orioles
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Mariners
Lucky
Unlucky
Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Mariners
Orioles
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Marinerspitching
Bryan Woo5.0 IP · 23 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
3.2 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 10 balls in play worth 6.8 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 20 pitches.

Changeup6 thrown (7% tonight, season 6%)
+0.1 bases cost
Alex Hoppe1.7 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
1.0 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 12 pitches. Struggled to find the zone (46% strikes).

Sinker3 thrown (11% tonight, season 18%)
+0.2 bases cost
Nick Davila1.3 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.4 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (22% tonight, season 11%)
−0.2 bases saved
Oriolespitching
Kyle Bradish4.0 IP · 21 BF · 5 K · 3 BB
4.8 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 3 balls in play worth 6.5 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 41 pitches.

Tyler Wells3.0 IP · 10 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
2.5 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 6 pitches. 4 of his 9 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Slider6 thrown (15% tonight, season 15%) · 3 whiffs
−0.7 bases saved
Curveball2 thrown (5% tonight, season 5%)
0.0 bases
Rico Garcia0.7 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Changeup4 thrown (25% tonight, season 27%)
−0.1 bases saved
Slider2 thrown (13% tonight, season 18%)
+0.1 bases cost
Grant Wolfram0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (29% tonight, season 23%)
−0.1 bases saved
Andrew Kittredge1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

About an average night — −1.1 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Slider2 thrown (33% tonight, season 50%)
−0.1 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Mariners
Lucky
Unlucky
Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Dominic Canzone hit it

Every ball Dominic Canzone hit this game, where it landed.

333'406'318'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

4 PA1 H0 BB0 HBP1 K101.6 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 4Deserved: 4.0
PA 1 vs Kyle Bradish: strikeoutPA 2 vs Kyle Bradish: home run — 3.6 deserved basesPA 3 vs Tyler Wells: out — 0.2 deserved basesPA 4 vs Rico Garcia: out — 0.2 deserved bases
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball56%

0.2 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed28%

0.2 deserved bases on contact

Breaking17%

3.6 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Kyle Bradish
K
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.6
Tyler Wells
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.2
Rico Garcia
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.2
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Mariners27 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
333'406'318'
Orioles23 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
333'406'318'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Oriole Park at Camden Yards — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information