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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Tigers at Angels · Jul 19, 2026

Tigers
2
Final
Angels
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Tigers 16% · tied 14% · Angels 70%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
2
3
Est. bases
8.5
9.1
Total bases
10
10
Home runs
2
0
Barrels
1
1
Walks/HBP
3
6
Strikeouts
7
10
GIDP
0
0
Stolen bases
0
4
Left on base
5
12
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Angels lead on deserved runs by 1.8.

Angels deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+1.8+1
Tigers deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Tigers +0.2 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Tigers +1Through inning 2: deserved Angels +0.4 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Angels +0.5 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved Angels +0.4 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 5: deserved Angels +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Angels +1Through inning 6: deserved Angels +1.9 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Angels +2Through inning 7: deserved Angels +1.8 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Angels +2Through inning 8: deserved Angels +1.9 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Angels +2Through inning 9: deserved Angels +1.8 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Angels +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualAngels sideTigers side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Tigers
Angels
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Tigers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Angels
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Tigers
Angels
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Tigerspitching
Casey Mize3.3 IP · 16 BF · 5 K · 1 BB
1.4 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 2.2 bases better than average on 29 pitches. The Splitter got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.1 expected bases.

Drew Anderson1.3 IP · 8 BF · 1 K · 3 BB
0.8 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 0.8 expected bases. Struggled to find the zone (53% strikes).

Sinker2 thrown
+0.3 bases cost
Brenan Hanifee1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

About an average night — −0.4 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (15% tonight, season 8%)
+0.1 bases cost
Tyler Holton1.3 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (15% tonight, season 12%)
+0.2 bases cost
Sinker2 thrown (10% tonight, season 20%)
−0.1 bases saved
Curveball1 thrown (5% tonight, season 4%)
+0.5 bases cost
Kenley Jansen1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 18 pitches.

Slider1 thrown (5% tonight, season 9%)
0.0 bases
Angelspitching
Ryan Johnson5.0 IP · 20 BF · 5 K · 3 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.6 bases better than average on 22 pitches. The Sinker got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.0 expected bases.

Slider3 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Samy Natera Jr.1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 11 pitches.

Slider2 thrown (15% tonight, season 18%) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Chase Silseth1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases cost

About an average night — +0.1 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sweeper4 thrown (29% tonight, season 20%)
−0.2 bases saved
Sam Bachman1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Ryan Zeferjahn1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases saved

About an average night — −0.1 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Tigers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Angels
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Kevin McGonigle hit it

Every ball Kevin McGonigle hit this game, where it landed.

330'411'330'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +1.0 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA1 H1 BB0 HBP0 K103.6 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 4.0
PA 1 vs Ryan Johnson: home run — 3.0 deserved basesPA 2 vs Ryan Johnson: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 3 vs Ryan Johnson: walkPA 4 vs Sam Bachman: out — 0.0 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball72%

3.0 deserved bases on contact

Breaking22%
Offspeed6%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Ryan Johnson
BB
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.0
Sam Bachman
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Angel Stadium.

Tigers24 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
330'411'330'
Angels23 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
330'411'330'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Angel Stadium — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information