Samy Natera Jr.
2026Grade
Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Natera is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.419 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 89th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (97th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
104 batters faced · data through 2026-08-23.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Samy Natera Jr..
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Samy Natera Jr. | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .423 | .527 | 89th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 38th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 28% | 22% | 97th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Samy Natera Jr. leans on his four-seam fastball (81% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 3.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 32% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 32 bases vs a replacement arm's 53 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
14.5 bases saved vs league average, across 457 pitches — 3.2 per 100.
Rarely used: splitter (1%)
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Mix by batter side
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Samy Natera Jr.'s pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.364 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.341 to 0.387, based on 45 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.304 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.459 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.304) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.402 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.380 to 0.424, based on 60 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.315 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.441 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.315) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Samy Natera Jr..
over 51 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.00 · WHIP 0.85 · BABIP against 0.240 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RangersJul 8, 2026
6 BF · 5 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +3.0
- vs AthleticsJun 28, 2026
5 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +2.2
- vs RaysJun 13, 2026
8 BF · 2 K, 2 BB
- Bases allowed
- 2.2
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs OriolesAug 6, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs OriolesJun 24, 2026
5 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +1.9