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One moment while the latest numbers come in.
Numbers flank the metric label; bars grow outward from center, scaled within each row.Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.
AstrosAngels
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict. By the end the Astros lead on deserved runs by 2.4.
Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk), ranked top to bottom. Away grows left, home grows right.Grouped by team, longest first.
AstrosAngelsAstrosBases each hitter created beyond what a freely-available bench bat would produce in the same plate appearances. Puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter on the same scale.
Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved (estimated bases). Unlucky bars grow left (deserved more than they got); lucky bars grow right. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.
AstrosAngelsTotal bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk), most to least. Away grows left, home grows right.Grouped by team, longest first.
AstrosAngelsAstrosAngelsBases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm, given the batters they faced. Starters and relievers are measured against role-appropriate baselines.
Each staff’s pitchers side by side. Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.
Astros pitchersAngels pitchersAstrospitchingHis Changeup did the damage prevention — 3.0 bases better than average on 30 pitches. The Slider got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.2 expected bases.
Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 7 pitches.
Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 9 pitches.
About an average night — −0.8 bases vs average on 4 batters.
Faced only 3 batters.
AngelspitchingThe Slider got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.0 expected bases. His Curveball did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 15 pitches.
His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 16 pitches.
Faced only 1 batter.
Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 11 pitches.
His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 20 pitches.
About an average night — +0.2 bases vs average on 6 batters.
Each pitcher's net luck on contact: the bases their opponents' contact deserved (estimated bases) minus what actually scored off them. Unlucky bars grow left (bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in); lucky bars grow right (hard contact found gloves). Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.
AstrosAngelsPick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.
Every ball Yordan Alvarez hit this game, where it landed.
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved.
5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP1 K109.1 mph Hardest hit
Finished even with deserved.
Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.
5.3 deserved bases on contact
vs pitchers
Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.
Astros19 BIP · 3 BB/HBPAngels23 BIP · 3 BB/HBPAngel Stadium — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.
The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases. Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.
Inning