Marlins @ Mets, 07/30/2026

MLB Deserve-to-Win

Loading…

One moment while the latest numbers come in.

Marlins @ Mets, 07/30/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win

← All games

Jul 30, 2026

Marlins

Final

Mets

Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Marlins 79% · tied 12% · Mets 9%

How win probability is simulated

Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Numbers flank the metric label; bars grow outward from center, scaled within each row.Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

MarlinsMets

Runs

13.1

Est. bases

7.0

Est. bases

13.1

7.0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Marlins lead on deserved runs by 2.2.

Mets deserved lead ↑

-4-20+2-2.2+2

Marlins deserved lead ↓

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Marlins

Mets

On contactWalks

How to read this chart

Ranked top to bottom. Away grows left, home grows right.Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart

“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Marlins

Lucky

Unlucky

Mets

Lucky

Unlucky

How to read this chart

“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Marlins

Mets

Marlins

Eury Pérez 24 BF

6.6

Michael Petersen 5 BF

Mets

On contactWalks

How to read this chart

Sorted most to least. Away grows left, home grows right.Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Better — bases prevented

Michael Petersen Marlins

0.3

How to read this chart

“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

Marlins pitchersMets pitchers

How to read this chart

Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Marlinspitching

Eury Pérez6.0 IP · 24 BF · 6 K · 2 BB

4.3 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 39 pitches. 5 of his 16 whiffs came on the Sinker.

Lake Bachar1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB

1.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Sweeper3 thrown (30% tonight, season 18%)

−0.2 bases saved

Four-Seamer2 thrown (20% tonight, season 31%)

+0.1 bases cost

Michael Petersen0.7 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB

even

About an average night — −0.0 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Changeup2 thrown (7% tonight, season 12%) · 2 whiffs

−0.2 bases saved

John King0.3 IP · 1 BF · 1 K · 0 BB

0.5 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Curveball4 thrown (50% tonight, season 11%)

−0.2 bases saved

Changeup2 thrown (25% tonight, season 20%)

−0.1 bases saved

Slider1 thrown (13% tonight, season 21%)

−0.1 bases saved

Sweeper1 thrown (13% tonight, season 14%)

0.0 bases

Metspitching

Nolan McLean6.3 IP · 26 BF · 6 K · 2 BB

1.6 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.6 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 24 pitches.

Cutter7 thrown (7% tonight, season 10%)

−0.5 bases saved

Slider6 thrown

−0.2 bases saved

Sweeper5 thrown (5% tonight, season 15%) · 1 whiff

−0.2 bases saved

Brooks Raley1.7 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB

0.7 bases saved

About an average night — −0.7 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Devin Williams1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB

0.8 bases saved

About an average night — −0.8 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Changeup5 thrown (29% tonight, season 48%) · 1 whiff

−0.2 bases saved

Lg avg pitcher = 0

How to read this chart

Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
“Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Marlins

Lucky

Unlucky

Mets

Lucky

Unlucky

How to read this chart

“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Kyle Stowers hit it

Every ball Kyle Stowers hit this game, where it landed.

EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.8 bases behind deserved.

4 PA1 H1 BB0 HBP0 K112.8 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 5.8

How to read this chart

Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball50%

0.8 deserved bases on contact

Breaking33%

0.4 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed17%

3.6 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Nolan McLean

Actual

5.0

Deserved

5.4

Brooks Raley

Actual

0.0

Deserved

0.4

How to read this chart

The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Citi Field.

Marlins23 BIP · 3 BB/HBP

Mets23 BIP · 2 BB/HBP

EBlowhigh

Exit velosoft → hard

How to read this chart

Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Citi Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

Player				Dir
Kyle Stowers	Home run	113	24°	Pull	3.6	▶
Jakob Marsee	Home run	100	33°	Pull	2.3	▶
Jorge Polanco	Out	101	20°	Pull	1.1	▶
Graham Pauley	Single	60	6°	Oppo	1.0	▶
Carson Benge	Single	91	12°	Oppo	1.0	▶

Kyle StowersHome run

EV 113 · LA 24° · Pull · EB 3.6

▶

Jakob MarseeHome run

EV 100 · LA 33° · Pull · EB 2.3

▶

Jorge PolancoOut

EV 101 · LA 20° · Pull · EB 1.1

▶

Graham PauleySingle

EV 60 · LA 6° · Oppo · EB 1.0

▶

Carson BengeSingle

EV 91 · LA 12° · Oppo · EB 1.0

▶

How to read this table

Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Loading…

Team comparison

Deserved run flow by inning

Batting

Bases created

Bases above replacement

Batting luck diagnostic

Pitching

Bases given up

Bases above replacement

Pitching matchup

How each pitcher performed

Pitching luck diagnostic

Player spotlight

Where Kyle Stowers hit it

Cumulative bases through the game

Pitch mix

Matchups vs pitchers

Batted balls

Where every ball landed

Run distribution information