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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Dodgers at Phillies · Jul 22, 2026

Dodgers
9
Final
Phillies
5
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Dodgers 74% · tied 11% · Phillies 15%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
9
5
Est. bases
18.8
13.7
Total bases
22
14
Home runs
2
2
Barrels
3
3
Walks/HBP
4
3
Strikeouts
7
9
GIDP
2
0
Stolen bases
3
0
Left on base
4
5
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Dodgers lead on deserved runs by 2.2.

Phillies deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20+2-2.2-4
Dodgers deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Phillies +1.0 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual Phillies +2Through inning 2: deserved Phillies +1.1 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Phillies +2Through inning 3: deserved Phillies +0.1 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 4: deserved Phillies +0.0 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 5: deserved Phillies +0.3 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Dodgers +0.3 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Dodgers +2Through inning 7: deserved Dodgers +0.8 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Dodgers +2Through inning 8: deserved Dodgers +1.9 (80% band -5.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Dodgers +5Through inning 9: deserved Dodgers +2.2 (80% band -6.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Dodgers +4123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualPhillies sideDodgers side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Dodgers
Phillies
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Dodgers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Dodgers
Phillies
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Dodgerspitching
Eric Lauer5.3 IP · 21 BF · 5 K · 1 BB
2.3 bases cost

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.8 bases better than average on 18 pitches. The Changeup got hit — 4 balls in play worth 4.3 expected bases.

Brock Stewart0.7 IP · 2 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (29% tonight, season 35%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (14% tonight, season 15%)
−0.1 bases saved
Jack Dreyer1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Slider4 thrown (33% tonight, season 37%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Will Klein1.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
0.4 bases cost

Struggled to find the zone (52% strikes).

Sweeper9 thrown (33% tonight, season 28%) · 1 whiff
+0.5 bases cost
Curveball2 thrown (7% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Slider1 thrown (4% tonight, season 5%)
−0.1 bases saved
Edgardo Henriquez1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (32% tonight, season 33%)
0.0 bases
Slider4 thrown (18% tonight, season 23%) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Curveball2 thrown (9% tonight, season 5%)
+0.1 bases cost
Philliespitching
Aaron Nola5.3 IP · 23 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
2.8 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 6 balls in play worth 4.9 expected bases. 5 of his 8 whiffs came on the Knuckle Curve.

Seth Johnson0.7 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker1 thrown (14% tonight, season 8%)
−0.1 bases saved
Slider1 thrown (14% tonight, season 35%)
−0.3 bases saved
Sweeper1 thrown
−0.1 bases saved
Tim Mayza1.3 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.4 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases.

Slider7 thrown (35% tonight, season 31%)
+0.8 bases cost
Four-Seamer1 thrown (5% tonight, season 9%)
+0.1 bases cost
Orion Kerkering0.7 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
1.2 bases cost

About an average night — +1.2 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Sweeper8 thrown (36% tonight, season 43%) · 1 whiff
+0.5 bases cost
Sinker1 thrown (5% tonight, season 18%)
+0.1 bases cost
Alex McFarlane1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
even

About an average night — +0.0 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Slider2 thrown (17% tonight, season 21%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Sweeper1 thrown (8% tonight, season 16%)
+0.1 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Dodgers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Dalton Rushing hit it

Every ball Dalton Rushing hit this game, where it landed.

329'411'330'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.3 bases behind deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP1 K107.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 6.3
PA 1 vs Aaron Nola: home run — 3.6 deserved basesPA 2 vs Aaron Nola: double — 2.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Tim Mayza: out — 0.6 deserved basesPA 4 vs Orion Kerkering: strikeout
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball57%

4.2 deserved bases on contact

Breaking35%

2.1 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed9%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Aaron Nola
Actual
6.0
Deserved
5.7
Tim Mayza
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.6
Orion Kerkering
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Citizens Bank Park.

Dodgers29 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
329'411'330'
Phillies25 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
329'411'330'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Citizens Bank Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information