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Aaron Nola

2026
Phillies· RHP · throws R· 137.0 IP· 5.12 ERA· 1.42 WHIP· 593 BF
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Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Cbetter than 45% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Nola sits right around league average

The simulator expects 0.456 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 45th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (73rd percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (5th percentile).

593 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. Percentiles vs. 464 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Aaron Nola.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.

How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against). Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
 Aaron NolaLeague medianPercentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better).586.52845th
Walk rate(lower = better)8%9%73rd
Strikeout rate(higher = better)24%22%73rd

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Aaron Nola mixes his knuckle curve (33%) and four-seam fastball (24%). His best pitch has been the knuckle curve, saving 2.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 43% whiff rate.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+49 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 281 bases vs a replacement arm's 330 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

14.7 bases cost vs league average, across 2,345 pitches — 0.6 per 100.

Knuckle Curve
33%
78.3 mph · RHP median 82.6
43% whiffs · Lg median 34%
saved 2.9 per 10022.4 total
Four-Seam Fastball
24%
92.3 mph · RHP median 95.1
14% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 3.1 per 10017.5 total
Sinker
19%
91.6 mph · RHP median 94.7
12% whiffs · Lg median 13%
cost 3.7 per 10016.3 total
Changeup
16%
85.6 mph · RHP median 87.1
27% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 1.1 per 1004.4 total
Cutter
7%
86.3 mph · RHP median 90.1
26% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 4.4 per 1007.7 total

Rarely used: slider (1%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Knuckle Curve
32% vs LHH · RHP median 22%
35% vs RHH · RHP median 15%
Four-Seam Fastball
27% vs LHH · RHP median 41%
18% vs RHH · RHP median 34%
Sinker
13% vs LHH · RHP median 17%
28% vs RHH · RHP median 34%
Changeup
22% vs LHH · RHP median 30%
7% vs RHH · RHP median 13%
Cutter
6% vs LHH · RHP median 19%
10% vs RHH · RHP median 19%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — between 22 and 351 of them, depending on the pitch. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Aaron Nola's pitch movement, 2026

None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.

Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.

Aaron Nola's pitch movement, 2026-12012-12012in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
Knuckle CurveKC
Rise −10.3 in
−0.4 vs Lg median
Break −14.5 in
−8.5 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 14.3 in
−1.4 vs Lg median
Break 13.0 in
+5.4 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SinkerSI
Rise 7.6 in
−0.7 vs Lg median
Break 17.6 in
+2.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
ChangeupCH
Rise 2.7 in
−1.3 vs Lg median
Break 15.1 in
+1.0 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CutterFC
Rise 8.4 in
+0.8 vs Lg median
Break −0.5 in
+1.6 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianCurrent-dot uncertainty
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current shape — horizontal break (arm side vs. glove side) by induced vertical break (rise vs. drop). Both axes are in inches of break. The trail runs from this season's earliest tracked outings — the faint, thin end — up to today's solid dot; a trail with only a few segments just means fewer tracked outings. The soft halo around each dot is how far that dot could sit off on its own, just from ordinary outing-to-outing wobble. Don't read a long trail as proof on its own that a pitch changed. Every pitch in baseball loses a little break through midsummer and gets it back by September — the same shift two full seasons back agree on — and the trail shows that league-wide seasonal swing alongside whatever this pitcher did himself. The sentence at the top of this card has the league's share taken out, so it can read “has not moved” above a trail that looks long. That is the two marks measuring different things, not a mistake. A pitch counts as changed only once it sits at least two inches from its own early-season shape — a verdict about this pitcher against himself, never a comparison with anyone else. League median: the small hollow ring marks it, on the same two measurements. Where it sits far from a pitch's dot, a line joins the two — and on a wider screen the ring carries that pitch's code as well — so a distant ring is never orphaned; where it sits close, neither is drawn, because the pairing is already obvious. League median is missing entirely for a pitch marked *: too few pitchers throw it for one to be worth setting, so it is plotted without a reference ring. For the exact dates a pitch changed, see the by-appearance chart below.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.048

vs LHB366 PA0.483

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.483 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.466 to 0.498, based on 366 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.495 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.

vs RHB229 PA0.442

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.442 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.425 to 0.459, based on 229 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.434 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.

0.4160.4390.4620.4840.507
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Aaron Nola landed this season.
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Earned vs. actual

Batters have been credited about 35 more bases than their contact off Aaron Nola earned — his results have run unlucky so far.

Earned off his contact allowed234
Actually credited to batters269

over 399 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

ERA 5.12 · WHIP 1.42 · BABIP against 0.315 (Lg median 0.286)

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Aaron Nola

HR allowed% up, BB% up, FB% against up vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.