His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Cbetter than 46% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterPower Arm
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Nola sits right around league average
The simulator expects him to allow 0.456 bases per batter faced, better than 46% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is getting strikeouts (71st percentile). His weakest skill is limiting home runs (5th percentile).
His grade rests on 744 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
▸How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together.
Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Aaron Nola.
This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.
Pitcher type
He lands in the “Misses bats, but gets hit hard” corner of the map.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski(26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell(29.0%)
▸How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
Aaron Nola
League median
Percentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better)
.571
.527
—
Walk rate(lower = better)
8%
9%
70th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)
23%
22%
71st
A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.
Arsenal
These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.
Aaron Nola mixes his knuckle curve (33%) and four-seam fastball (24%). His best pitch has been the knuckle curve, saving 2.6 bases per 100 thrown against league average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
▲ +87 bases better than a replacement arm this season
He allowed about 349 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 436 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
Bases vs average
All pitches
He cost 15.0 bases against league average across 2,925 pitches, or 0.5 per 100 pitches.
Lg avg
Knuckle Curve
33%
78.4 mph · RHP median 82.6
41% whiffs · Lg median 33%
saved 2.6 per 10025.1 total
Four-Seam Fastball
24%
92.3 mph · RHP median 95.1
14% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 2.4 per 10016.8 total
Sinker
18%
91.6 mph · RHP median 94.7
12% whiffs · Lg median 13%
cost 4.0 per 10021.5 total
Changeup
16%
85.6 mph · RHP median 87.1
26% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 1.6 per 1007.9 total
Cutter
8%
86.2 mph · RHP median 90.1
26% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 4.3 per 1009.7 total
He rarely throws his slider (1% of his pitches).
▸How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.
Mix by batter side
Knuckle Curve
32% vs LHH · RHP median 21%
36% vs RHH · RHP median 16%
Four-Seam Fastball
27% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
19% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Sinker
13% vs LHH · RHP median 16%
27% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Changeup
22% vs LHH · RHP median 30%
7% vs RHH · RHP median 12%
Cutter
6% vs LHH · RHP median 20%
10% vs RHH · RHP median 19%
▸How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 23 and 384 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.
Aaron Nola's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches has clearly moved from its early-season shape.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
Pitch
Risein · vs Lg median
Breakin · vs Lg median
Vs. early season
Knuckle CurveKC
Rise −10.2 in
−0.3 vs Lg median
Break −15.3 in
−9.4 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 14.8 in
−0.9 vs Lg median
Break 11.5 in
+3.8 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SinkerSI
Rise 8.6 in
+0.3 vs Lg median
Break 16.5 in
+1.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
ChangeupCH
Rise 3.7 in
−0.4 vs Lg median
Break 14.4 in
+0.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CutterFC
Rise 7.2 in
−0.5 vs Lg median
Break −0.6 in
+1.5 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
▸How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page
By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.
Platoon splits
This section splits his results against lefties and righties.
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.043 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.036 to +0.051
vs LHB458 PA0.483
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.483 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.469 to 0.500, based on 458 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.498 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
Lg median
vs RHB288 PA0.440
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.440 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.423 to 0.455, based on 288 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.421 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
Lg median
0.4140.4380.4610.4850.509
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league
His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.
▸How to read this chart
Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Every ball hit off Aaron Nola this season is drawn where it landed.
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.
Deserved vs. actual
Batters have been credited with about 36 more bases than their contact off Aaron Nola deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.
Deserved by the contact he allowed288
Actually credited to batters324
Both bars count 505 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.
▸How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.
ERA 4.67 · WHIP 1.35 · BABIP against 0.297 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through the order
These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.
Best games
These are his biggest outings this season.
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
