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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 12, 2026
Phillies
1
Final
Cardinals
7
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Phillies 20% · tied 13% · Cardinals 68%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
1
7
Est. bases
10.2
11.3
Total bases
8
11
Home runs
0
0
Barrels
0
1
Walks/HBP
2
6
Strikeouts
8
9
GIDP
2
1
Stolen bases
0
2
Left on base
5
7
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Cardinals lead on deserved runs by 1.7.

Cardinals deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+6+1.7+6
Phillies deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved even (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Cardinals +0.2 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +1Through inning 3: deserved Cardinals +0.2 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +1Through inning 4: deserved Phillies +0.9 (80% band -3.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 5: deserved Phillies +0.2 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +4Through inning 6: deserved Phillies +0.4 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +4Through inning 7: deserved Cardinals +0.6 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +6Through inning 8: deserved Cardinals +1.8 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning +1.2 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +6Through inning 9: deserved Cardinals +1.7 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +6123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualCardinals sidePhillies side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Phillies
Cardinals
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
Cardinals
Lucky
Unlucky
Even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Phillies
Cardinals
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Philliespitching
Zack Wheeler5.0 IP · 23 BF · 5 K · 1 BB
1.8 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 10 pitches. 3 of his 10 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Brooks Raley1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Cutter4 thrown (31% tonight, season 28%) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Sweeper3 thrown (23% tonight, season 37%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (15% tonight, season 21%)
−0.1 bases saved
José Alvarado0.3 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 3 BB
1.2 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 1 ball in play worth 0.4 expected bases.

Chase Shugart1.7 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 1 ball in play worth 2.4 expected bases.

Changeup2 thrown (10% tonight, season 8%)
−0.6 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown (5% tonight, season 11%)
+0.5 bases cost
Cardinalspitching
Kyle Leahy5.0 IP · 20 BF · 6 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.8 bases better than average on 17 pitches. The Curveball got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.0 expected bases.

Four-Seamer19 thrown (23% tonight, season 27%) · 1 whiff
−0.8 bases saved
Justin Bruihl1.3 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases cost

About an average night — +0.2 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Changeup1 thrown (6% tonight, season 10%)
+0.1 bases cost
Gordon Graceffo1.7 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Curveball2 thrown (9% tonight, season 11%)
0.0 bases
Sinker1 thrown (5% tonight, season 7%)
+0.1 bases cost
Luis Gastelum1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

About an average night — −0.7 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Changeup8 thrown (57% tonight, season 38%) · 3 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Four-Seamer3 thrown (21% tonight, season 33%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (7% tonight, season 10%)
−0.1 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
Cardinals
Lucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Iván Herrera hit it

Every ball Iván Herrera hit this game, where it landed.

336'406'335'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −2.8 bases behind deserved.

5 PA1 H1 BB0 HBP1 K105.1 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 2Deserved: 4.8
PA 1 vs Zack Wheeler: strikeoutPA 2 vs Zack Wheeler: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Zack Wheeler: single — 1.3 deserved basesPA 4 vs José Alvarado: walkPA 5 vs Chase Shugart: out — 2.4 deserved bases
K
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball90%

3.8 deserved bases on contact

Breaking10%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Chase Shugart
Actual
0.0
Deserved
2.4
Zack Wheeler
K
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.4
José Alvarado
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Busch Stadium.

Phillies23 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
336'406'335'
Cardinals23 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
336'406'335'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Busch Stadium — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information