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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Rangers at Rays · Jul 30, 2026

Rangers
2
Final
Rays
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Rangers 20% · tied 13% · Rays 67%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
2
3
Est. bases
7.3
15.4
Total bases
3
16
Home runs
0
2
Barrels
1
3
Walks/HBP
8
2
Strikeouts
13
5
GIDP
0
2
Stolen bases
2
1
Left on base
9
6
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Rays lead on deserved runs by 1.5.

Rays deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+1.5+1
Rangers deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Rays +0.7 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Rays +0.6 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Rays +1.9 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · this inning +1.2 deserved runs · actual Rays +1Through inning 4: deserved Rays +2.1 (80% band 0.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 5: deserved Rays +1.1 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning -1.0 deserved runs · actual Rangers +1Through inning 6: deserved Rays +2.5 (80% band 0.0 to +5.0) · this inning +1.4 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 7: deserved Rays +2.1 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 8: deserved Rays +2.5 (80% band 0.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Rays +1Through inning 9: deserved Rays +1.5 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning -1.0 deserved runs · actual Rays +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRays sideRangers side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Rangers
Rays
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Rays
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Rangers
Rays
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Rangerspitching
Cole Winn1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
2.4 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. Overall 2.4 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Cutter4 thrown (33% tonight, season 29%)
−0.1 bases saved
Splitter2 thrown (17% tonight, season 14%)
−0.1 bases saved
Marco Gonzales3.0 IP · 15 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
0.2 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 1 ball in play worth 0.9 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 25 pitches.

Curveball3 thrown (4% tonight, season 9%)
−0.1 bases saved
Peyton Gray2.0 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.9 expected bases. 5 of his 7 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Robby Ahlstrom1.3 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.7 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 6 pitches. Overall 1.7 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (40% tonight, season 33%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Ben Peoples0.7 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.7 expected bases.

Rayspitching
Shane McClanahan3.0 IP · 12 BF · 3 K · 2 BB
0.4 bases saved

3 of his 6 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Slider3 thrown (6% tonight, season 18%)
+0.3 bases cost
Casey Legumina0.7 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Slider3 thrown (33% tonight, season 12%) · 2 whiffs
−0.1 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (22% tonight, season 42%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Cam Booser0.7 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
even

Faced only 3 batters. The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.3 expected bases.

Cutter3 thrown (27% tonight, season 41%)
−0.2 bases saved
Changeup2 thrown · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Craig Kimbrel0.7 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases saved

About an average night — −0.3 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Knuckle Curve2 thrown (14% tonight, season 10%)
+0.3 bases cost
Sinker1 thrown (7% tonight, season 7%)
−0.1 bases saved
Steven Matz2.0 IP · 7 BF · 3 K · 1 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 11 pitches. Overall 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Curveball5 thrown (15% tonight, season 12%)
+0.2 bases cost
Slider1 thrown (3% tonight, season 9%)
−0.1 bases saved
Garrett Cleavinger1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

3 of his 6 whiffs came on the Slider.

Slider8 thrown (40% tonight, season 44%) · 3 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Sweeper4 thrown (20% tonight, season 12%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Four-Seamer1 thrown (5% tonight, season 15%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Bryan Baker1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
1.3 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.6 expected bases.

Four-Seamer20 thrown (67% tonight, season 52%) · 3 whiffs
+0.3 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Rays
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Jonny DeLuca hit it

Every ball Jonny DeLuca hit this game, where it landed.

315'415'322'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.6 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP0 K102.3 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 4.4
PA 1 vs Marco Gonzales: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 2 vs Marco Gonzales: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Peyton Gray: home run — 3.8 deserved basesPA 4 vs Ben Peoples: single — 0.5 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball38%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Breaking38%

0.5 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed25%

0.0 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Peyton Gray
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.8
Ben Peoples
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.5
Marco Gonzales
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Tropicana Field.

Rangers17 BIP · 8 BB/HBP
315'415'322'
Rays26 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
315'415'322'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Tropicana Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information