Cole Winn
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Winn sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.448 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 58th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Quiet Contact (16th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
205 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Cole Winn.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Cole Winn | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .552 | .528 | 58th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 69th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 47th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Cole Winn mixes his four-seam fastball (32%) and cutter (29%). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 2.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 94 bases vs a replacement arm's 105 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
2.9 bases saved vs league average, across 730 pitches — 0.4 per 100.
Rarely used: sinker, curveball (2%)
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Mix by batter side
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Cole Winn's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.471 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.451 to 0.492, based on 86 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.485 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.431 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.411 to 0.452, based on 118 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.442 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 5 more bases than their contact off Cole Winn earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 141 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.59 · WHIP 1.39 · BABIP against 0.321 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs TigersJul 5, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.7
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs AngelsAug 22, 2026
5 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +2.2
- vs RedsApr 5, 2026
4 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs OriolesMar 31, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs DodgersApr 12, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +1.4
Trends
Multi-season trends · Cole Winn
HR allowed% up, BB% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.