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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Red Sox at Rangers · Sep 17, 2026

Red Sox
4
Final
Rangers
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Red Sox 53% · tied 16% · Rangers 30%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
4
3
Est. bases
9.0
8.2
Total bases
9
7
Home runs
1
1
Barrels
3
1
Walks/HBP
6
4
Strikeouts
6
7
GIDP
0
2
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
7
3
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Red Sox lead on deserved runs by 0.6.

Rangers deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2-0.6-1
Red Sox deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Rangers +0.2 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Rangers +1Through inning 2: deserved Rangers +0.7 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Rangers +3Through inning 3: deserved Rangers +0.6 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Rangers +3Through inning 4: deserved Rangers +0.3 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Rangers +3Through inning 5: deserved Rangers +0.3 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Rangers +3Through inning 6: deserved Rangers +0.5 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Rangers +3Through inning 7: deserved Rangers +0.2 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Rangers +2Through inning 8: deserved Red Sox +1.4 (80% band -4.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.6 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +1Through inning 9: deserved Red Sox +0.6 (80% band -4.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Red Sox +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRangers sideRed Sox side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Red Sox
Rangers
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Red Sox
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Red Sox
Rangers
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Red Soxpitching
Sonny Gray6.3 IP · 25 BF · 6 K · 3 BB
2.5 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 2.1 bases better than average on 26 pitches. The Sinker got hit — 6 balls in play worth 4.0 expected bases.

Changeup6 thrown (6% tonight, season 6%) · 4 whiffs
−0.8 bases saved
Curveball6 thrown (6% tonight, season 17%)
−0.2 bases saved
Wyatt Olds1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Slider3 thrown (25% tonight, season 34%)
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Alec Gamboa0.7 IP · 2 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases cost

Faced only 2 batters.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (43% tonight, season 42%)
+0.1 bases cost
Slider1 thrown (14% tonight, season 35%)
+0.2 bases cost
Garrett Whitlock1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.8 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker5 thrown (42% tonight, season 56%) · 1 whiff
+0.5 bases cost
Rangerspitching
Tyler Alexander1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

About an average night — −0.7 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Changeup4 thrown (22% tonight, season 24%)
+0.1 bases cost
Four-Seamer3 thrown (17% tonight, season 18%)
+0.1 bases cost
Cody Bradford4.3 IP · 17 BF · 3 K · 1 BB
3.1 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 3.0 bases better than average on 36 pitches. The Slider got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.3 expected bases.

Curveball2 thrown (3% tonight, season 5%)
0.0 bases
Chase Silseth0.7 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Sweeper5 thrown (38% tonight, season 20%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Splitter2 thrown (15% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (8% tonight, season 13%)
−0.1 bases saved
Robby Ahlstrom0.7 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.7 bases cost

About an average night — +0.7 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Slider4 thrown (22% tonight, season 26%)
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer1 thrown (6% tonight, season 33%)
0.0 bases
Jakob Junis0.3 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup5 thrown (36% tonight, season 19%)
+0.2 bases cost
Sinker3 thrown (21% tonight, season 17%)
+1.0 bases cost
Four-Seamer2 thrown (14% tonight, season 19%)
−0.1 bases saved
Jacob Latz1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.8 bases cost

Overall 1.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider1 thrown (7% tonight, season 17%)
+0.1 bases cost
Jordan Montgomery1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Curveball3 thrown (19% tonight, season 24%)
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup2 thrown (13% tonight, season 13%)
+0.2 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (13% tonight, season 11%)
+0.2 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Red Sox
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Trevor Story hit it

Every ball Trevor Story hit this game, where it landed.

329'409'326'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +1.1 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP2 K108.2 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 3.9
PA 1 vs Cody Bradford: strikeoutPA 2 vs Cody Bradford: single — 0.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Chase Silseth: strikeoutPA 4 vs Jacob Latz: home run — 3.0 deserved bases
K
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball48%
Breaking30%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed22%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Jacob Latz
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.0
Cody Bradford
K
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.9
Chase Silseth
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Globe Life Field.

Red Sox26 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
329'409'326'
Rangers22 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
329'409'326'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Globe Life Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information