Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games

Mariners at Athletics · Sep 13, 2026

Mariners
7
Final
Athletics
8
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Mariners 13% · tied 8% · Athletics 79%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
7
8
Est. bases
15.2
20.3
Total bases
16
21
Home runs
1
3
Barrels
1
4
Walks/HBP
6
8
Strikeouts
7
7
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
9
8
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Athletics lead on deserved runs by 3.0.

Athletics deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+4+6+3.0+1
Mariners deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Athletics +2.1 (80% band +2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +2.1 deserved runs · actual Athletics +2Through inning 2: deserved Athletics +3.1 (80% band +2.0 to +5.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual Athletics +2Through inning 3: deserved Athletics +3.5 (80% band +2.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved Athletics +3.7 (80% band +2.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Mariners +3Through inning 5: deserved Athletics +3.1 (80% band 0.0 to +6.0) · this inning -0.6 deserved runs · actual Mariners +4Through inning 6: deserved Athletics +1.9 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Mariners +4Through inning 7: deserved Athletics +4.0 (80% band +1.0 to +7.0) · this inning +2.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 8: deserved Athletics +2.0 (80% band -2.0 to +6.0) · this inning -2.0 deserved runs · actual Mariners +1Through inning 9: deserved Athletics +3.0 (80% band -1.0 to +7.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual Athletics +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualAthletics sideMariners side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Mariners
Athletics
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Mariners
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Athletics
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Mariners
Athletics
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Marinerspitching
Bryce Miller5.0 IP · 22 BF · 5 K · 5 BB
6.3 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 4.5 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 11 pitches.

Slider11 thrown (12% tonight, season 10%) · 3 whiffs
−0.9 bases saved
Carlos Vargas1.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.1 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.4 expected bases. Overall 2.1 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider3 thrown (21% tonight, season 35%)
−0.2 bases saved
Gabe Speier0.3 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Slider4 thrown (21% tonight, season 27%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Seranthony Domínguez1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

About an average night — −0.8 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Sweeper8 thrown (44% tonight, season 28%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Andrés Muñoz0.7 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.6 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.8 expected bases. Overall 2.6 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Changeup1 thrown (7% tonight, season 7%)
+0.1 bases cost
Slider1 thrown (7% tonight, season 44%)
+0.2 bases cost
Athleticspitching
Jacob Lopez3.7 IP · 19 BF · 3 K · 3 BB
0.6 bases cost

The Other got hit — 2 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 16 pitches.

Changeup8 thrown (8% tonight, season 8%)
−0.1 bases saved
Scott Blewett0.7 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
1.0 bases cost

About an average night — +1.0 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Sinker2 thrown (10% tonight, season 10%)
+0.2 bases cost
Luis Medina0.7 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Changeup3 thrown (20% tonight, season 15%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Slider3 thrown (20% tonight, season 17%)
+0.7 bases cost
Curveball2 thrown (13% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown (7% tonight, season 30%)
0.0 bases
Geoff Hartlieb2.0 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases saved

The Slider got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.6 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (28% tonight, season 35%)
−0.4 bases saved
Cutter4 thrown (16% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Hogan Harris1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
3.7 bases cost

Overall 3.7 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider1 thrown (5% tonight, season 7%)
+0.1 bases cost
Elvis Alvarado1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.4 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Splitter1 thrown (7% tonight, season 6%)
+0.1 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Mariners
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Athletics
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Randy Arozarena hit it

Every ball Randy Arozarena hit this game, where it landed.

330'406'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

5 PA3 H0 BB0 HBP0 K110.0 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 9Deserved: 8.9
PA 1 vs Jacob Lopez: out — 0.2 deserved basesPA 2 vs Jacob Lopez: home runPA 3 vs Scott Blewett: single — 0.5 deserved basesPA 4 vs Geoff Hartlieb: out — 0.3 deserved basesPA 5 vs Hogan Harris: home run — 3.8 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball53%

0.6 deserved bases on contact

Breaking32%

4.4 deserved bases on contact

Other11%
Offspeed5%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Jacob Lopez
Actual
4.0
Deserved
4.2
Hogan Harris
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.8
Scott Blewett
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.5
Geoff Hartlieb
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.3
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Sutter Health Park.

Mariners29 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
330'406'325'
Athletics25 BIP · 8 BB/HBP
330'406'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Sutter Health Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information