Geoff Hartlieb
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Hartlieb is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.477 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 18th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (73rd percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (8th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
71 batters faced · data through 2026-09-02.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Geoff Hartlieb mixes his four-seam fastball (37%) and slider (31%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the slider has come closest.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 34 bases vs a replacement arm's 37 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
3.3 bases cost vs league average, across 166 pitches — 2.0 per 100.
His cutter and sinker aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Geoff Hartlieb's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His cutter and sinker aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.502 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.481 to 0.525, based on 33 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.548 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.548) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.461 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.438 to 0.482, based on 38 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.433 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.433 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Geoff Hartlieb.
over 55 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.28 · WHIP 1.83 · BABIP against 0.333 (Lg median 0.288)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs RangersSep 2, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs NationalsJul 19, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.0
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs AngelsJun 27, 2026
4 BF · 0 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.9
- Above replacement
- +1.1
- vs DodgersJun 30, 2026
15 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 6 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.4
- Above replacement
- +0.7
- vs GiantsJun 25, 2026
7 BF · 1 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 3.3
- Above replacement
- +0.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Geoff Hartlieb
HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down vs his previous season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.