Jacob Lopez
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Lopez sits right around league average
The simulator expects him to allow 0.456 bases per batter faced, better than 45% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting hard contact (99th percentile). His weakest skill is limiting home runs (15th percentile).
His grade rests on 551 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Jacob Lopez.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
He lands in the “Limits hard contact, pitches to contact” corner of the map.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell (29.0%)
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| Jacob Lopez | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .496 | .527 | — |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 25th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 37th |
A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.
Arsenal
Jacob Lopez mixes his four-seam fastball (35%) and slider (34%). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 1.0 bases per 100 thrown against league average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
He allowed about 245 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 323 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
He saved 0.2 bases against league average across 2,163 pitches, or 0.0 per 100 pitches.
He rarely throws his sinker (3% of his pitches).
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his four-seam fastball tilts 21 points more toward lefties.
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Jacob Lopez's pitch movement, 2026
His Sinker has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape, but his other 4 have not.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
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By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles lefty bats better than righty bats, by 0.039 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.427 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.410 to 0.444, based on 147 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.395 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
His raw rate vs LHB (0.395) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.465 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.450 to 0.482, based on 404 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.470 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
His split is about typical for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.
How to read this chart
- Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
- The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
- The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
- The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
- Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
7 outs behind him came on balls the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.
13 hits off him had less than a 20% chance of being hits.
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Deserved vs. actual
Batters have been credited with about 28 more bases than their contact off Jacob Lopez deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.
Both bars count 375 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.
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ERA 5.47 · WHIP 1.49 · BABIP against 0.292 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through the order
Best games
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
- vs RaysAug 10, 2026
27 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 5 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 8.7
- Above replacement
- +7.1
- vs AstrosAug 22, 2026
23 BF · 9 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.3
- Above replacement
- +6.2
- vs MarinersSep 13, 2026
19 BF · 3 K, 3 BB, 6 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 5.2
- Above replacement
- +5.9
- vs Red SoxJul 29, 2026
24 BF · 8 K, 2 BB, 7 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 9.1
- Above replacement
- +5.0
- vs MarinersApr 21, 2026score only
24 BF · 1 K, 2 BB, 7 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 9.1
- Above replacement
- +5.0
Trends
Multi-season trends · Jacob Lopez
Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is up, his BB% is up, his K% is down and his FB% against is up.
Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.