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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Rangers at Braves · Jul 18, 2026

Rangers
7
Final
Braves
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Rangers 51% · tied 14% · Braves 35%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
7
6
Est. bases
18.2
17.6
Total bases
19
16
Home runs
2
2
Barrels
3
1
Walks/HBP
5
4
Strikeouts
9
9
GIDP
2
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
10
7
Errors
0
2

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Rangers lead on deserved runs by 0.6.

Braves deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+4-0.6-1
Rangers deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Rangers +1.0 (80% band -2.0 to 0.0) · this inning -1.0 deserved runs · actual Rangers +1Through inning 2: deserved Braves +1.4 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +2.4 deserved runs · actual Braves +3Through inning 3: deserved Braves +1.5 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Braves +2Through inning 4: deserved Braves +1.4 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Braves +2Through inning 5: deserved Braves +1.0 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Braves +2Through inning 6: deserved Rangers +0.8 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning -1.8 deserved runs · actual Rangers +2Through inning 7: deserved Rangers +0.8 (80% band -5.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual Rangers +1Through inning 8: deserved Rangers +0.6 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Rangers +1Through inning 9: deserved Rangers +0.6 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Rangers +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualBraves sideRangers side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Rangers
Braves
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Rangers
Braves
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Rangerspitching
MacKenzie Gore5.7 IP · 27 BF · 7 K · 1 BB
4.5 bases cost

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.9 bases better than average on 41 pitches. The Cutter got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.9 expected bases.

Curveball10 thrown (11% tonight, season 18%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Changeup7 thrown (8% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Robby Ahlstrom0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases cost

Faced only 1 batter.

Tyler Alexander1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases cost

About an average night — +0.5 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Cutter3 thrown (21% tonight, season 22%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Sweeper1 thrown (7% tonight, season 18%)
+0.1 bases cost
Jakob Junis0.7 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Sweeper9 thrown (64% tonight, season 44%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Sinker3 thrown (21% tonight, season 18%)
+0.1 bases cost
Jacob Latz1.3 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 11 pitches.

Curveball1 thrown (7% tonight, season 8%)
0.0 bases
Slider1 thrown (7% tonight, season 18%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Bravespitching
Owen Murphy2.7 IP · 15 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
3.1 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 6 balls in play worth 5.8 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Sinker2 thrown
0.0 bases
Curveball1 thrown (2% tonight, season 10%)
−0.1 bases saved
Dylan Dodd1.3 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Sinker.

Slider1 thrown (5% tonight, season 5%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
JR Ritchie1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 12 pitches.

Curveball3 thrown (14% tonight, season 27%)
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (5% tonight, season 17%)
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer1 thrown (5% tonight, season 18%)
+0.1 bases cost
Tyler Kinley0.3 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
4.1 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 3 balls in play worth 5.0 expected bases. Overall 4.1 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (38% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Curveball2 thrown (13% tonight, season 15%)
+0.1 bases cost
Dylan Lee0.7 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 11 pitches. 4 of his 6 whiffs came on the Slider.

Changeup4 thrown (22% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Danny Young1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases.

Sweeper7 thrown (37% tonight, season 49%)
+0.7 bases cost
Didier Fuentes1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 14 pitches. 5 of his 5 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Slider1 thrown (7% tonight, season 24%)
+0.1 bases cost
Raisel Iglesias1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (50% tonight, season 37%) · 3 whiffs
−0.6 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (25% tonight, season 20%)
−0.1 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Evan Carter hit it

Every ball Evan Carter hit this game, where it landed.

335'407'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +1.0 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP1 K101.1 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.0
PA 1 vs Owen Murphy: walkPA 2 vs Dylan Dodd: out — 0.6 deserved basesPA 3 vs Tyler Kinley: home run — 3.2 deserved basesPA 4 vs Danny Young: single — 0.1 deserved basesPA 5 vs Raisel Iglesias: strikeout
BB
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball68%

0.8 deserved bases on contact

Breaking18%

3.2 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed14%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Tyler Kinley
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.2
Owen Murphy
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Dylan Dodd
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.6
Danny Young
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.1
Raisel Iglesias
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Truist Park.

Rangers30 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
335'407'325'
Braves27 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
335'407'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Truist Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information