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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Padres at Braves · Jul 22, 2026

Padres
6
Final
Braves
7
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Padres 46% · tied 14% · Braves 40%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
6
7
Est. bases
15.0
16.1
Total bases
17
17
Home runs
2
0
Barrels
2
1
Walks/HBP
6
5
Strikeouts
10
10
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
2
0
Left on base
7
12
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Padres lead on deserved runs by 0.2.

Braves deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+4+6-0.2+1
Padres deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Braves +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Braves +1Through inning 2: deserved Braves +0.3 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Braves +1Through inning 3: deserved Braves +0.5 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Braves +1Through inning 4: deserved Braves +0.2 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Braves +1Through inning 5: deserved Braves +0.6 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Braves +1Through inning 6: deserved Braves +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual Braves +1Through inning 7: deserved Padres +0.8 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -1.9 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 8: deserved Braves +2.1 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +2.8 deserved runs · actual Braves +6Through inning 9: deserved Padres +0.2 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning -2.3 deserved runs · actual Braves +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualBraves sidePadres side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Padres
Braves
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Padres
Braves
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Padrespitching
Michael King6.0 IP · 27 BF · 7 K · 4 BB
1.5 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 33 pitches. 8 of his 16 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Slider4 thrown (4% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Adrian Morejon1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 6 pitches. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Changeup6 thrown (30% tonight, season 23%) · 3 whiffs
−0.9 bases saved
Slider3 thrown (15% tonight, season 16%)
+0.1 bases cost
Wandy Peralta0.3 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
3.7 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.9 expected bases. Overall 3.7 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Randy Vásquez0.7 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (21% tonight, season 31%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Slider4 thrown (21% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Changeup1 thrown (5% tonight, season 8%)
0.0 bases
Sweeper1 thrown (5% tonight, season 6%)
+0.1 bases cost
Bravespitching
Martín Pérez4.0 IP · 16 BF · 3 K · 4 BB
1.0 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 23 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.1 expected bases.

Dylan Dodd1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Sinker9 thrown (82% tonight, season 61%) · 2 whiffs
−1.0 bases saved
Didier Fuentes2.0 IP · 10 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
2.6 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 5 balls in play worth 5.7 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Splitter2 thrown (5% tonight, season 7%)
0.0 bases
Dylan Lee1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup2 thrown (14% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Victor Mederos0.3 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
1.1 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.2 expected bases.

Raisel Iglesias0.7 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
2.2 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.5 expected bases.

Changeup4 thrown (33% tonight, season 36%)
−0.2 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (8% tonight, season 20%)
−0.1 bases saved
Slider1 thrown (8% tonight, season 7%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Jackson Merrill hit it

Every ball Jackson Merrill hit this game, where it landed.

335'407'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP0 K109.0 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 5.2
PA 1 vs Martín Pérez: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 2 vs Martín Pérez: single — 1.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Didier Fuentes: home run — 3.8 deserved basesPA 4 vs Dylan Lee: out — 0.1 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball74%

5.1 deserved bases on contact

Breaking16%
Offspeed11%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Didier Fuentes
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.8
Martín Pérez
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.3
Dylan Lee
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Truist Park.

Padres24 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
335'407'325'
Braves28 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
335'407'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Truist Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information