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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Braves at Orioles · Jul 26, 2026

Braves
3
Final
Orioles
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Braves 57% · tied 16% · Orioles 28%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
3
2
Est. bases
11.5
10.6
Total bases
10
9
Home runs
0
1
Barrels
1
2
Walks/HBP
9
6
Strikeouts
6
9
GIDP
1
1
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
14
12
Errors
1
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Braves lead on deserved runs by 1.0.

Orioles deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2-1.0-1
Braves deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Braves +0.1 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Braves +0.4 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Braves +1Through inning 3: deserved Braves +0.5 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Braves +1Through inning 4: deserved Braves +1.9 (80% band -4.0 to 0.0) · this inning -1.4 deserved runs · actual Braves +2Through inning 5: deserved Braves +2.1 (80% band -4.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Braves +2Through inning 6: deserved Braves +1.8 (80% band -4.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Braves +2Through inning 7: deserved Braves +2.4 (80% band -5.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Braves +2Through inning 8: deserved Braves +1.1 (80% band -4.0 to +1.0) · this inning +1.2 deserved runs · actual Braves +1Through inning 9: deserved Braves +1.1 (80% band -4.0 to +1.1) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 10: deserved Braves +0.7 (80% band -4.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 11: deserved Braves +1.0 (80% band -4.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Braves +11234567891011

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualOrioles sideBraves side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Braves
Orioles
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Braves
Orioles
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Bravespitching
Reynaldo López5.7 IP · 23 BF · 6 K · 1 BB
4.4 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 4.8 bases better than average on 50 pitches. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Slider.

Changeup7 thrown (8% tonight, season 4%)
+0.4 bases cost
Dylan Dodd1.3 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Dylan Lee1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.2 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.9 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Changeup1 thrown (6% tonight, season 16%)
+0.2 bases cost
Raisel Iglesias1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.9 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 7 pitches. The Sinker got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases.

Sinker7 thrown (39% tonight, season 20%)
+0.9 bases cost
Danny Young0.7 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.5 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker3 thrown (33% tonight, season 49%)
+0.4 bases cost
Tyler Kinley1.3 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
0.9 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.6 bases better than average on 13 pitches.

Curveball4 thrown (21% tonight, season 15%)
+0.4 bases cost
Four-Seamer2 thrown (11% tonight, season 16%)
+0.4 bases cost
Oriolespitching
Shane Baz4.3 IP · 19 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
2.3 bases cost

The Knuckle Curve got hit — 9 balls in play worth 5.5 expected bases. 6 of his 14 whiffs came on the Knuckle Curve.

Changeup7 thrown (8% tonight, season 9%)
+0.1 bases cost
Josh Walker1.7 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.8 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.8 bases better than average on 7 pitches. Overall 1.8 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Anthony Nunez1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
0.1 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. Struggled to find the zone (50% strikes).

Changeup13 thrown (46% tonight, season 22%) · 1 whiff
+1.0 bases cost
Sweeper3 thrown (11% tonight, season 30%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Albert Suárez2.0 IP · 8 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
1.4 bases saved

His Curveball did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 6 pitches. Struggled to find the zone (47% strikes).

Changeup2 thrown (6% tonight, season 17%)
0.0 bases
Tyler Wells1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.6 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Andrew Kittredge1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.5 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Slider10 thrown (53% tonight, season 49%)
+0.2 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Pete Alonso hit it

Every ball Pete Alonso hit this game, where it landed.

333'406'318'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.7 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP1 K109.4 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.3
PA 1 vs Reynaldo López: single — 0.4 deserved basesPA 2 vs Reynaldo López: strikeoutPA 3 vs Reynaldo López: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 4 vs Dylan Lee: home run — 3.8 deserved basesPA 5 vs Danny Young: walk
K
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball55%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Breaking45%

4.2 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Dylan Lee
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.8
Danny Young
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Reynaldo López
K
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.5
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Braves33 BIP · 9 BB/HBP
333'406'318'
Orioles30 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
333'406'318'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Oriole Park at Camden Yards — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information