MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 31, 2026
Phillies
4
Final
Orioles
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Phillies 25% · tied 13% · Orioles 62%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
4
6
Est. bases
13.0
12.7
Total bases
12
13
Home runs
2
1
Barrels
2
1
Walks/HBP
3
7
Strikeouts
7
9
GIDP
0
2
Stolen bases
2
0
Left on base
5
5
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Orioles lead on deserved runs by 1.4.

Orioles deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+4+1.4+2
Phillies deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Orioles +1.4 (80% band +1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +1.4 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Orioles +1.6 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Orioles +1.4 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 4: deserved Orioles +0.7 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.7 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 5: deserved Phillies +0.0 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.7 deserved runs · actual Phillies +1Through inning 6: deserved Phillies +1.0 (80% band -4.0 to +2.0) · this inning -1.0 deserved runs · actual Phillies +2Through inning 7: deserved Orioles +1.3 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning +2.2 deserved runs · actual Orioles +2Through inning 8: deserved Orioles +1.5 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Orioles +2Through inning 9: deserved Orioles +1.4 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Orioles +2123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualOrioles sidePhillies side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Phillies
Orioles
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Phillies
Orioles
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Philliespitching
Andrew Painter6.0 IP · 23 BF · 6 K · 3 BB
1.1 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 6 balls in play worth 5.1 expected bases. His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.5 bases better than average on 13 pitches.

Orion Kerkering0.7 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
1.6 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 2 balls in play worth 2.3 expected bases. Overall 1.6 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer12 thrown (44% tonight, season 33%) · 1 whiff
+0.5 bases cost
Sinker3 thrown (11% tonight, season 18%)
−0.1 bases saved
Tim Mayza0.3 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.9 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. The Sinker got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.4 expected bases.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (25% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Chase Shugart1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup3 thrown (25% tonight, season 7%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Sinker2 thrown (17% tonight, season 29%)
−0.2 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown (8% tonight, season 12%)
+0.2 bases cost
Sweeper1 thrown (8% tonight, season 22%)
−0.1 bases saved
Oriolespitching
Brandon Young5.7 IP · 24 BF · 5 K · 2 BB
2.3 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 4 balls in play worth 4.7 expected bases. His Splitter did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 22 pitches.

Curveball11 thrown (12% tonight, season 11%)
−0.2 bases saved
Josh Walker0.7 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (18% tonight, season 21%)
−0.2 bases saved
Anthony Nunez0.7 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup8 thrown (47% tonight, season 23%)
+0.4 bases cost
Sweeper6 thrown (35% tonight, season 29%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (12% tonight, season 15%)
+0.1 bases cost
Yennier Cano1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 14 pitches.

Splitter2 thrown (12% tonight, season 26%)
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer1 thrown (6% tonight, season 4%)
+0.1 bases cost
Tyler Wells1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Curveball2 thrown (20% tonight, season 5%)
+0.1 bases cost
Four-Seamer2 thrown (20% tonight, season 29%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Pete Alonso hit it

Every ball Pete Alonso hit this game, where it landed.

349'402'324'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +1.0 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB1 HBP1 K109.9 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.0
PA 1 vs Andrew Painter: home run — 3.4 deserved basesPA 2 vs Andrew Painter: single — 0.6 deserved basesPA 3 vs Andrew Painter: strikeoutPA 4 vs Orion Kerkering: hit by pitch
K
HBP
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking57%
Fastball36%

4.0 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed7%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Andrew Painter
K
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.0
Orion Kerkering
HBP
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Phillies26 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
349'402'324'
Orioles19 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
349'402'324'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Oriole Park at Camden Yards — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information