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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 18, 2026
Yankees
3
Final
Orioles
1
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Yankees 17% · tied 19% · Orioles 64%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
3
1
Est. bases
7.8
11.5
Total bases
8
7
Home runs
1
1
Barrels
2
2
Walks/HBP
4
4
Strikeouts
14
9
GIDP
0
0
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
6
8
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Orioles lead on deserved runs by 1.2.

Orioles deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+1.2-2
Yankees deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Orioles +0.0 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Orioles +0.2 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Orioles +0.5 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved Orioles +0.9 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 5: deserved Orioles +1.4 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Orioles +1.4 (80% band 0.0 to +3.1) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 7: deserved Orioles +1.0 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.4 deserved runs · actual Yankees +2Through inning 8: deserved Orioles +1.4 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Yankees +2Through inning 9: deserved Orioles +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Yankees +2123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualOrioles sideYankees side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Yankees
Orioles
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Yankees
Lucky
Unlucky
Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Yankees
Orioles
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Yankeespitching
Carlos Rodón4.0 IP · 17 BF · 4 K · 2 BB
1.0 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 4 balls in play worth 4.5 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 12 pitches.

Curveball2 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Yerry De los Santos2.0 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases cost

About an average night — +0.3 bases vs average on 7 batters.

Changeup6 thrown (26% tonight, season 23%)
+0.2 bases cost
Four-Seamer2 thrown (9% tonight, season 11%)
−0.2 bases saved
Slider2 thrown (9% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Brent Headrick0.7 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.6 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 16 pitches.

Splitter4 thrown (16% tonight, season 9%)
+0.1 bases cost
Slider3 thrown (12% tonight, season 33%)
+0.2 bases cost
Sinker2 thrown (8% tonight, season 10%)
+0.1 bases cost
Fernando Cruz0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Splitter1 thrown (33% tonight, season 52%)
+0.1 bases cost
Slider1 thrown (33% tonight, season 14%)
+0.1 bases cost
Paul Blackburn1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases saved

3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Cutter4 thrown (25% tonight, season 22%) · 1 whiff
+0.2 bases cost
Sinker3 thrown (19% tonight, season 33%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sweeper2 thrown (13% tonight, season 6%)
+0.1 bases cost
Curveball1 thrown (6% tonight, season 14%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
David Bednar1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Splitter did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Splitter5 thrown (63% tonight, season 40%) · 4 whiffs
−0.8 bases saved
Oriolespitching
Shane Baz6.3 IP · 25 BF · 10 K · 2 BB
3.2 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.9 bases better than average on 40 pitches. The Changeup got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.8 expected bases.

Josh Walker0.7 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.9 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.1 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Slider9 thrown (36% tonight, season 44%) · 1 whiff
+0.2 bases cost
Four-Seamer8 thrown (32% tonight, season 23%) · 2 whiffs
−1.1 bases saved
Changeup3 thrown (12% tonight, season 7%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Albert Suárez2.0 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
2.1 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 14 pitches. Overall 2.1 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer14 thrown (67% tonight, season 54%)
−1.2 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Yankees
Lucky
Unlucky
Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Coby Mayo hit it

Every ball Coby Mayo hit this game, where it landed.

333'406'318'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

4 PA1 H1 BB0 HBP0 K103.9 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 5.1
PA 1 vs Carlos Rodón: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 2 vs Carlos Rodón: home run — 3.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Yerry De los Santos: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 4 vs Paul Blackburn: walk
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking58%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Fastball33%

0.0 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed8%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Carlos Rodón
Actual
4.0
Deserved
4.0
Paul Blackburn
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Yerry De los Santos
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Yankees18 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
333'406'318'
Orioles23 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
333'406'318'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Oriole Park at Camden Yards — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information