Brent Headrick
2026Grade
Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Headrick is among the league's best at preventing damage
The simulator expects 0.407 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 94th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (95th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
265 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Brent Headrick.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Brent Headrick | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .469 | .528 | 94th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 66th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 27% | 22% | 92nd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Brent Headrick leans on his four-seam fastball (49% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 3.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 99 bases vs a replacement arm's 136 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
22.8 bases saved vs league average, across 1,028 pitches — 2.2 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his four-seam fastball tilts 20 points more toward righties.
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Brent Headrick's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider and Splitter have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.046
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.370 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.350 to 0.391, based on 100 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.413 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.407 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.388 to 0.428, based on 165 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.340 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 5 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Brent Headrick.
over 166 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 1.52 · WHIP 1.14 · BABIP against 0.319 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs DodgersJul 19, 2026
6 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.4
- Above replacement
- +2.7
- vs Blue JaysAug 23, 2026
5 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs CubsAug 2, 2026
4 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs TigersJul 1, 2026
4 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs GuardiansJun 2, 2026
6 BF · 4 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +1.8
Trends
Multi-season trends · Brent Headrick
HR allowed% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.