Paul Blackburn
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Blackburn is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.427 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 83rd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (85th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
278 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Paul Blackburn.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Paul Blackburn | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .403 | .528 | 83rd |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 10% | 9% | 43rd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 32nd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Paul Blackburn mixes his sinker (33%) and cutter (22%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 6.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 107 bases vs a replacement arm's 143 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
22.2 bases saved vs league average, across 982 pitches — 2.3 per 100.
Rarely used: four-seam fastball, slider (3%)
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his sinker tilts 23 points more toward righties.
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Paul Blackburn's pitch movement, 2026
His Sweeper has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 4 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.031 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.458 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.438 to 0.478, based on 149 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.391 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.419 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.399 to 0.439, based on 130 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.366 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.366) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040).
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 8 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 8 fewer bases than their contact off Paul Blackburn earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 198 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 1.77 · WHIP 1.06 · BABIP against 0.219 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs Red SoxJun 5, 2026
6 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +2.8
- vs TigersJun 22, 2026
5 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +2.3
- vs PiratesJul 22, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.4
- Above replacement
- +2.2
- vs BravesAug 9, 2026
6 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.9
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs Blue JaysMay 21, 2026
7 BF · 2 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.8
- Above replacement
- +1.8
Trends
Multi-season trends · Paul Blackburn
HR allowed% down, BB% up, Barrel% against down, GB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.