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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Tigers at Cubs · Jul 21, 2026

Tigers
2
Final
Cubs
11
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Tigers 31% · tied 11% · Cubs 58%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
2
11
Est. bases
22.3
12.6
Total bases
11
17
Home runs
1
1
Barrels
3
1
Walks/HBP
3
13
Strikeouts
6
9
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
0
1
Left on base
8
12
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Cubs lead on deserved runs by 1.1.

Cubs deserved lead ↑
0+5+10+1.1+9
Tigers deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Cubs +2.4 (80% band +1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +2.4 deserved runs · actual Cubs +6Through inning 2: deserved Cubs +0.7 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -1.7 deserved runs · actual Cubs +6Through inning 3: deserved Cubs +1.5 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Cubs +7Through inning 4: deserved Cubs +0.3 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Cubs +7Through inning 5: deserved Cubs +2.6 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning +2.2 deserved runs · actual Cubs +9Through inning 6: deserved Cubs +2.5 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Cubs +9Through inning 7: deserved Cubs +2.5 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.0 deserved runs · actual Cubs +11Through inning 8: deserved Cubs +3.3 (80% band -1.0 to +7.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Cubs +11Through inning 9: deserved Cubs +1.1 (80% band -3.0 to +5.0) · this inning -2.2 deserved runs · actual Cubs +9123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualCubs sideTigers side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Tigers
Cubs
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Tigers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Cubs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Tigers
Cubs
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Tigerspitching
Framber Valdez0.7 IP · 10 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
1.9 bases cost

Overall 1.9 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider4 thrown (10% tonight, season 5%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Changeup3 thrown (7% tonight, season 19%)
+0.2 bases cost
Four-Seamer1 thrown
+0.7 bases cost
Ty Madden3.3 IP · 15 BF · 5 K · 4 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 9 pitches. 4 of his 9 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Slider17 thrown (23% tonight, season 23%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Sinker9 thrown (12% tonight, season 10%)
+0.6 bases cost
Brenan Hanifee2.0 IP · 8 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
3.0 bases cost

Overall 3.0 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider8 thrown (29% tonight, season 23%)
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer5 thrown (18% tonight, season 8%) · 2 whiffs
+0.1 bases cost
Zach McKinstry1.0 IP · 8 BF · 0 K · 3 BB
0.2 bases cost

Struggled to find the zone (46% strikes).

Fastball4 thrown (14% tonight, season 58%)
+0.2 bases cost
Jake Rogers1.0 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
even

The Eephus got hit — 2 balls in play worth 0.7 expected bases. His Fastball did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Fastball7 thrown (30% tonight, season 42%) · 1 whiff
−1.0 bases saved
Cubspitching
David Peterson6.7 IP · 24 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
3.9 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 3 balls in play worth 5.0 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 27 pitches.

Aaron Civale2.3 IP · 13 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
4.6 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 5 balls in play worth 7.8 expected bases. His Curveball did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 14 pitches.

Four-Seamer9 thrown (19% tonight, season 11%)
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker4 thrown (9% tonight, season 17%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Tigers
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Cubs
Lucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Dillon Dingler hit it

Every ball Dillon Dingler hit this game, where it landed.

355'405'353'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −1.1 bases behind deserved.

4 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP0 K105.6 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 8.1
PA 1 vs David Peterson: double — 3.4 deserved basesPA 2 vs David Peterson: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs David Peterson: walkPA 4 vs Aaron Civale: home run — 3.6 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball60%

3.7 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed25%

3.4 deserved bases on contact

Breaking15%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

David Peterson
BB
Actual
3.0
Deserved
4.5
Aaron Civale
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.6
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Wrigley Field.

Tigers28 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
355'405'353'
Cubs25 BIP · 13 BB/HBP
355'405'353'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Wrigley Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information