MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 31, 2026
Pirates
7
Final
Reds
8
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Pirates 21% · tied 10% · Reds 69%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
7
8
Est. bases
14.3
16.7
Total bases
16
22
Home runs
1
2
Barrels
1
2
Walks/HBP
4
7
Strikeouts
8
12
GIDP
0
2
Stolen bases
2
0
Left on base
9
10
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Reds lead on deserved runs by 2.1.

Reds deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+6+2.1+1
Pirates deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Reds +0.9 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Pirates +0.6 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -1.5 deserved runs · actual Pirates +1Through inning 3: deserved Reds +0.3 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved Reds +1.9 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +1.6 deserved runs · actual Reds +2Through inning 5: deserved Reds +1.5 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Reds +1Through inning 6: deserved Reds +2.3 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Reds +1Through inning 7: deserved Reds +2.2 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Reds +1Through inning 8: deserved Reds +2.1 (80% band -2.0 to +6.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Reds +1Through inning 9: deserved Reds +2.1 (80% band -2.0 to +6.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual Reds +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualReds sidePirates side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Pirates
Reds
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Pirates
Lucky
Unlucky
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Pirates
Reds
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Piratespitching
Paul Skenes3.3 IP · 20 BF · 5 K · 4 BB
5.6 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 6 balls in play worth 6.1 expected bases. 7 of his 15 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Slider13 thrown (13% tonight, season 6%) · 3 whiffs
+0.3 bases cost
Splitter7 thrown (7% tonight, season 11%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup3 thrown (3% tonight, season 15%)
+0.4 bases cost
Antwone Kelly
1.5 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 13 pitches.

Changeup4 thrown (10% tonight, season 8%)
−0.5 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown
−0.2 bases saved
Wilber Dotel
1.1 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.4 expected bases.

Cutter1 thrown (6% tonight, season 22%)
+0.1 bases cost
Mason Montgomery
1.1 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Slider1 thrown (8% tonight, season 17%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Redspitching
Hunter Greene4.0 IP · 19 BF · 3 K · 2 BB
even

The Slider got hit — 5 balls in play worth 4.0 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 47 pitches.

Sam Moll
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup5 thrown (31% tonight, season 14%) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Sinker4 thrown (25% tonight, season 39%)
+0.5 bases cost
Sweeper4 thrown (25% tonight, season 37%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Four-Seamer3 thrown (19% tonight, season 10%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Julian Garcia
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Caleb Ferguson
0.7 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker3 thrown (43% tonight, season 33%)
−0.2 bases saved
Cutter1 thrown (14% tonight, season 25%)
0.0 bases
Pierce Johnson
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (35% tonight, season 37%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Emilio Pagán
0.6 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Splitter4 thrown (29% tonight, season 18%) · 1 whiff
+0.6 bases cost
Cutter1 thrown (7% tonight, season 20%)
+0.1 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Pirates
Lucky
Unlucky
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where JJ Bleday hit it

Every ball JJ Bleday hit this game, where it landed.

335'408'331'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

5 PA1 H2 BB0 HBP1 K105.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 5.9
PA 1 vs Paul Skenes: walkPA 2 vs Paul Skenes: home run — 3.8 deserved basesPA 3 vs Paul Skenes: strikeoutPA 4 vs Antwone Kelly: walkPA 5 vs Mason Montgomery: out — 0.1 deserved bases
BB
K
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball68%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Breaking16%
Offspeed16%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Paul Skenes
BBK
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.8
Antwone Kelly
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Mason Montgomery
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Great American Ball Park.

Pirates31 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
335'408'331'
Reds23 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
335'408'331'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Great American Ball Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information