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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 6, 2026
Mets
13
Final
Guardians
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Mets 90% · tied 4% · Guardians 5%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
13
6
Est. bases
24.3
13.1
Total bases
32
13
Home runs
3
1
Barrels
2
2
Walks/HBP
6
4
Strikeouts
11
12
GIDP
0
0
Stolen bases
2
1
Left on base
11
8
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Mets lead on deserved runs by 4.5.

Guardians deserved lead ↑
-10-50-4.5-7
Mets deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Guardians +1.0 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual Guardians +2Through inning 2: deserved Guardians +0.8 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Mets +1Through inning 3: deserved Mets +0.6 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -1.4 deserved runs · actual Mets +3Through inning 4: deserved Mets +1.7 (80% band -4.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Mets +3Through inning 5: deserved Mets +0.2 (80% band -3.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.5 deserved runs · actual Mets +1Through inning 6: deserved Mets +1.4 (80% band -5.0 to +2.0) · this inning -1.2 deserved runs · actual Mets +1Through inning 7: deserved Mets +3.5 (80% band -7.0 to 0.0) · this inning -2.1 deserved runs · actual Mets +4Through inning 8: deserved Mets +5.8 (80% band -10.0 to -2.0) · this inning -2.3 deserved runs · actual Mets +8Through inning 9: deserved Mets +4.5 (80% band -9.0 to -1.0) · this inning +1.2 deserved runs · actual Mets +7123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualGuardians sideMets side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Mets
Guardians
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Mets
Lucky
Unlucky
Guardians
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Mets
Nate Lavender 3 BF
0.0
Guardians
Austin Hedges 4 BF
0.5
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Metspitching
Nolan McLean5.0 IP · 26 BF · 8 K · 3 BB
0.9 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 4 balls in play worth 4.1 expected bases. 4 of his 8 whiffs came on the Curveball.

Changeup5 thrown (5% tonight, season 7%)
−0.2 bases saved
Nate Lavender1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Changeup3 thrown
−0.4 bases saved
Slider3 thrown
−0.1 bases saved
Sweeper2 thrown
0.0 bases
Kodai Senga1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Forkball6 thrown (43% tonight, season 24%) · 2 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Sweeper1 thrown (7% tonight, season 9%)
0.0 bases
Xzavion Curry2.0 IP · 9 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases cost

Struggled to find the zone (46% strikes).

Sinker4 thrown (14% tonight, season 6%)
+0.4 bases cost
Slider4 thrown (14% tonight, season 30%)
+0.1 bases cost
Guardianspitching
Foster Griffin4.0 IP · 21 BF · 6 K · 2 BB
2.5 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 2 balls in play worth 5.0 expected bases. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 14 pitches.

Changeup13 thrown (15% tonight, season 10%) · 1 whiff
+0.6 bases cost
Sinker13 thrown (15% tonight, season 10%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Splitter5 thrown (6% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Matt Festa1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.6 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Cutter4 thrown (18% tonight, season 8%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (9% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Colin Holderman1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.4 expected bases.

Sweeper9 thrown (38% tonight, season 34%) · 2 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown (4% tonight, season 5%)
0.0 bases
Craig Yoho1.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.9 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.0 expected bases. Overall 2.9 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slade Cecconi0.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
4.0 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.7 expected bases. Overall 4.0 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Cutter8 thrown (27% tonight, season 25%)
+0.1 bases cost
Slider3 thrown (10% tonight, season 5%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (3% tonight, season 21%)
+0.5 bases cost
Tim Herrin0.7 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 11 pitches.

Curveball7 thrown (30% tonight, season 29%) · 2 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Sinker3 thrown (13% tonight, season 23%)
+0.3 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (9% tonight, season 26%)
+0.1 bases cost
Austin Hedges1.3 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

About an average night — −1.3 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Mets
Lucky
Unlucky
Guardians
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Francisco Alvarez hit it

Every ball Francisco Alvarez hit this game, where it landed.

332'404'332'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −2.4 bases behind deserved.

6 PA1 H2 BB0 HBP0 K101.2 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 4Deserved: 6.4
PA 1 vs Foster Griffin: out — 0.2 deserved basesPA 2 vs Foster Griffin: walkPA 3 vs Matt Festa: walkPA 4 vs Colin Holderman: out — 0.4 deserved basesPA 5 vs Slade Cecconi: double — 3.7 deserved basesPA 6 vs Austin Hedges: out — 0.1 deserved bases
BB
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball54%

0.4 deserved bases on contact

Breaking36%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed11%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Slade Cecconi
Actual
2.0
Deserved
3.7
Foster Griffin
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.2
Matt Festa
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Colin Holderman
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.4
Austin Hedges
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Progressive Field.

Mets34 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
332'404'332'
Guardians25 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
332'404'332'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Progressive Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information