Nate Lavender
2026Grade
Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Lavender is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.434 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 81st percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (78th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
70 batters faced · data through 2026-09-18.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Nate Lavender leans on his four-seam fastball (71% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 3.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 27 bases vs a replacement arm's 36 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
6.8 bases saved vs league average, across 178 pitches — 3.8 per 100.
Only his four-seam fastball is in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
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Mix by batter side
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Nate Lavender's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball is in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.045
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.387 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.364 to 0.410, based on 36 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.346 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.346) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.424 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.401 to 0.445, based on 34 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.397 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.437 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.037). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the opposite field off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs OriolesSep 15, 2026
5 BF · 4 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs RaysSep 2, 2026
7 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.5
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs BrewersAug 25, 2026
6 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.5
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs GuardiansAug 6, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs White SoxAug 21, 2026
4 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +1.5