Jared Jones
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Jones sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.443 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 66th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (82nd percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (23rd percentile).
289 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Jared Jones.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Jared Jones | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .550 | .528 | 66th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 48th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 25% | 22% | 82nd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Jared Jones leans on his four-seam fastball (47% of pitches). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 2.2 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 3.2 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 128 bases vs a replacement arm's 161 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
1.8 bases saved vs league average, across 1,135 pitches — 0.2 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Jared Jones's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup and Curveball have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.048
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.441 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.422 to 0.460, based on 178 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.480 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.480) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.400 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.380 to 0.419, based on 112 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.390 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 5 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 9 more bases than their contact off Jared Jones earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 184 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 4.76 · WHIP 1.25 · BABIP against 0.278 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs D-backsJul 29, 2026
24 BF · 5 K, 2 BB, 4 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 5.7
- Above replacement
- +7.6
- vs BravesJul 8, 2026
18 BF · 8 K
- Bases allowed
- 3.0
- Above replacement
- +7.0
- vs GuardiansJul 18, 2026
19 BF · 9 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.0
- Above replacement
- +5.6
- vs CubsJul 24, 2026
21 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 2 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 6.5
- Above replacement
- +5.1
- vs DodgersAug 22, 2026
20 BF · 5 K, 5 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.2
- Above replacement
- +3.0
Trends
Multi-season trends · Jared Jones
BB% up, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, Pull% against up vs his previous season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.