Chase Burns
2026Grade
Suppresses damage and throws strikes — the full package.
Burns is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.418 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 89th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (94th percentile).
548 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Chase Burns.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Chase Burns | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .508 | .528 | 89th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 52nd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 27% | 22% | 94th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Chase Burns leans on his four-seam fastball (56% of pitches). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 3.0 bases per 100 thrown vs average, with a 52% whiff rate.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 217 bases vs a replacement arm's 305 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
29.9 bases saved vs league average, across 2,237 pitches — 1.3 per 100.
Rarely used: curveball (0%)
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Mix by batter side
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Chase Burns's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.422 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.407 to 0.439, based on 349 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.436 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.381 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.364 to 0.398, based on 200 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.324 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.324) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 7 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 9 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Chase Burns.
over 331 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.51 · WHIP 1.11 · BABIP against 0.283 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MarlinsAug 14, 2026
24 BF · 8 K, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.5
- Above replacement
- +9.8
- vs RangersApr 5, 2026
24 BF · 9 K, 1 BB, 5 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 6.7
- Above replacement
- +6.7
- vs GiantsApr 16, 2026
18 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.5
- Above replacement
- +6.6
- vs NationalsMay 14, 2026
23 BF · 7 K, 2 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.0
- Above replacement
- +5.8
- vs PiratesMay 3, 2026
24 BF · 7 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.7
- Above replacement
- +5.7
Trends
Multi-season trends · Chase Burns
HR allowed% down, K% down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.