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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Blue Jays at Royals · Sep 4, 2026

Blue Jays
9
Final
Royals
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Blue Jays 47% · tied 12% · Royals 40%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
9
2
Est. bases
17.6
17.6
Total bases
19
13
Home runs
1
2
Barrels
1
2
Walks/HBP
4
2
Strikeouts
3
5
GIDP
0
2
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
7
4
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Blue Jays lead on deserved runs by 0.3.

Royals deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20+2+4-0.3-7
Blue Jays deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Blue Jays +0.2 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +3Through inning 2: deserved Blue Jays +0.4 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +4Through inning 3: deserved Blue Jays +0.2 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +4Through inning 4: deserved Royals +0.6 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +4Through inning 5: deserved Royals +1.4 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +4Through inning 6: deserved Blue Jays +0.9 (80% band -5.0 to +3.0) · this inning -2.2 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +7Through inning 7: deserved Blue Jays +0.2 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +7Through inning 8: deserved Royals +0.2 (80% band -4.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +7Through inning 9: deserved Blue Jays +0.3 (80% band -4.0 to +4.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Blue Jays +7123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRoyals sideBlue Jays side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Royals
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Royals
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Blue Jays
Royals
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Blue Jayspitching
Jameson Taillon2.0 IP · 8 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.6 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 4 balls in play worth 4.7 expected bases. Overall 2.6 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper3 thrown (10% tonight, season 16%)
0.0 bases
Changeup2 thrown (7% tonight, season 16%)
−0.3 bases saved
Joe Mantiply2.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
even

The Curveball got hit — 1 ball in play worth 0.9 expected bases.

Changeup2 thrown (9% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Braydon Fisher1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.4 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (21% tonight, season 19%)
0.0 bases
Cutter1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Brendon Little1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases saved

About an average night — −0.3 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer10 thrown (32% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Knuckle Curve7 thrown (23% tonight, season 29%) · 2 whiffs
+0.1 bases cost
Sinker4 thrown (13% tonight, season 26%)
+0.2 bases cost
Michael Lorenzen3.0 IP · 12 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
2.0 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.5 expected bases. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Sweeper5 thrown (15% tonight, season 7%) · 4 whiffs
−0.8 bases saved
Royalspitching
Daniel Lynch IV5.0 IP · 24 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 7 pitches. Overall 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Nolan Hoffman2.0 IP · 10 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
1.5 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 4 balls in play worth 3.3 expected bases.

Cutter6 thrown (19% tonight, season 31%)
0.0 bases
Changeup3 thrown (10% tonight, season 6%)
+0.1 bases cost
Curveball1 thrown
0.0 bases
Easton McGee2.0 IP · 9 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
2.2 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.8 expected bases. His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (15% tonight, season 21%)
+0.7 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Blue Jays
Lucky
Dead even
Royals
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Bobby Witt Jr. hit it

Every ball Bobby Witt Jr. hit this game, where it landed.

330'418'330'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.4 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA1 H1 BB0 HBP1 K106.9 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 4.6
PA 1 vs Jameson Taillon: home run — 3.4 deserved basesPA 2 vs Joe Mantiply: strikeoutPA 3 vs Brendon Little: walkPA 4 vs Michael Lorenzen: out — 0.2 deserved bases
K
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball58%

3.6 deserved bases on contact

Breaking32%
Offspeed11%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Jameson Taillon
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.4
Brendon Little
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Michael Lorenzen
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.2
Joe Mantiply
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Kauffman Stadium.

Blue Jays36 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
330'418'330'
Royals26 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
330'418'330'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Kauffman Stadium — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information