Daniel Lynch IV
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Lynch sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.439 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 69th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (79th percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (21st percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
218 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Daniel Lynch IV.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Daniel Lynch IV | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .441 | .528 | 69th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 69th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 20% | 22% | 21st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Daniel Lynch IV mixes his sinker (30%) and changeup (24%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 3.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 93 bases vs a replacement arm's 112 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
11.5 bases saved vs league average, across 794 pitches — 1.4 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his sinker tilts 20 points more toward lefties.
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Daniel Lynch IV's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.408 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.387 to 0.428, based on 95 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.324 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.324) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.448 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.428 to 0.468, based on 123 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.458 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.039). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 7 fewer bases than their contact off Daniel Lynch IV earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 172 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.83 · WHIP 1.02 · BABIP against 0.232 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs AthleticsAug 18, 2026
15 BF · 1 K, 2 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.8
- Above replacement
- +3.5
- vs BrewersApr 4, 2026
7 BF · 3 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.8
- Above replacement
- +2.8
- vs CardinalsMay 17, 2026
6 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.1
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs MarinersMay 3, 2026
4 BF · 3 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.9
- vs CubsAug 7, 2026
10 BF · 2 K, 2 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.4
- Above replacement
- +1.7
Trends
Multi-season trends · Daniel Lynch IV
HR allowed% down, BB% down, K% up, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.