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Nolan Hoffman

2026
Royals· RHP · throws R· 15.0 IP· 3.60 ERA· 1.53 WHIP· 67 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 22% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Hoffman allows more bases than most pitchers

The simulator expects him to allow 0.472 bases per batter faced, better than 22% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting home runs (97th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 67 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Ryan GustoMarlinsEthan PeckoAstrosMatt StrahmRoyalsChris BassittOrioles

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Nolan Hoffman mixes his cutter (26%) and four-seam fastball (25%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 7.8 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+9 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 26 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 35 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He saved 3.0 bases against league average across 174 pitches, or 1.7 per 100 pitches.

Cutter
26%
88.4 mph · RHP median 90.1
—
saved 0.4 per 1000.2 total
Four-Seam Fastball
25%
93.2 mph · RHP median 95.1
28% whiffs · Lg median 21%
saved 7.8 per 1004.5 total
Sinker
25%
92.8 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
cost 3.0 per 1001.7 total
Sweeper
not charted
11%
80.6 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
—
Changeup
not charted
9%
85.3 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—
Curveball
not charted
5%
78.2 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
—

His sweeper, changeup, and curveball aren't in the charts below, because too few of each were tracked this season.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Nolan Hoffman's pitch movement, 2026

His Cutter and Four-Seam Fastball have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.

The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.

Nolan Hoffman's pitch movement, 2026061218061218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
CutterFC
Rise 6.9 in
−0.8 vs Lg median
Break 3.2 in
+5.3 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 5.1 in
−10.6 vs Lg median
Break 15.4 in
+7.7 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
SinkerSI
Rise −0.9 in
−9.2 vs Lg median
Break 18.1 in
+2.9 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His sweeper, changeup, and curveball aren't in these charts, because too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.042 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050

vs LHB29 PA0.473

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.473 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.451 to 0.495, based on 29 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.490 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB38 PA0.431

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.431 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.410 to 0.454, based on 38 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.379 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.379) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.4000.4260.4530.4790.505
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the opposite field.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Nolan Hoffman this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Angel MartínezDouble
94 mph · 11° · worth 1.9 bases
09/25 vs Guardians
vs George SpringerDouble
111 mph · 12° · worth 1.5 bases
09/04 vs Blue Jays
vs Andrew BenintendiSingle
101 mph · 13° · worth 1.2 bases
09/22 vs White Sox
vs Myles StrawSingle
98 mph · 13° · worth 1.0 bases
09/06 vs Blue Jays
vs Ernie ClementSingle
83 mph · 17° · worth 1.0 bases
09/04 vs Blue Jays

Luck check

How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.