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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Phillies at Marlins · Jul 29, 2026

Phillies
6
Final
Marlins
8
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Phillies 15% · tied 10% · Marlins 76%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
6
8
Est. bases
13.5
16.5
Total bases
15
16
Home runs
1
2
Barrels
1
3
Walks/HBP
4
6
Strikeouts
7
5
GIDP
3
0
Stolen bases
0
2
Left on base
4
5
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Marlins lead on deserved runs by 2.4.

Marlins deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+4+6+2.4+2
Phillies deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Phillies +0.0 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Phillies +0.1 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Phillies +0.6 (80% band -2.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.4 deserved runs · actual Phillies +2Through inning 4: deserved Phillies +1.2 (80% band -3.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.6 deserved runs · actual Phillies +3Through inning 5: deserved Phillies +1.7 (80% band -5.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Phillies +3Through inning 6: deserved Phillies +1.4 (80% band -5.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Phillies +3Through inning 7: deserved Marlins +0.5 (80% band -3.0 to +4.0) · this inning +2.0 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 8: deserved Marlins +2.1 (80% band -2.0 to +6.0) · this inning +1.6 deserved runs · actual Marlins +2Through inning 9: deserved Marlins +2.4 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Marlins +2123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualMarlins sidePhillies side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Phillies
Marlins
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Phillies
Marlins
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Philliespitching
Jesús Luzardo6.3 IP · 28 BF · 5 K · 3 BB
3.4 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 8 balls in play worth 8.3 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 26 pitches.

Seth Johnson0.7 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.6 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.4 expected bases.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (41% tonight, season 47%)
+0.1 bases cost
Curveball1 thrown (6% tonight, season 6%)
0.0 bases
Sinker1 thrown (6% tonight, season 9%)
+0.1 bases cost
Jonathan Bowlan1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
1.8 bases cost

Overall 1.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer11 thrown (61% tonight, season 48%) · 2 whiffs
+0.2 bases cost
Sweeper1 thrown (6% tonight, season 8%)
−0.3 bases saved
Marlinspitching
Ryan Gusto5.0 IP · 24 BF · 3 K · 2 BB
3.7 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 4 balls in play worth 4.2 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 10 pitches.

Sinker7 thrown (9% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Dax Fulton2.0 IP · 7 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
0.5 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 12 pitches. Struggled to find the zone (50% strikes).

Slider4 thrown (15% tonight, season 20%)
+0.2 bases cost
Sinker2 thrown (8% tonight, season 11%)
−0.1 bases saved
Tyler Zuber1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (50% tonight, season 38%) · 4 whiffs
−0.8 bases saved
Slider2 thrown (14% tonight, season 18%)
0.0 bases
Curveball1 thrown (7% tonight, season 4%)
0.0 bases
Pete Fairbanks1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Cutter2 thrown (15% tonight, season 23%)
−0.2 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Phillies
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Marlins
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Trea Turner hit it

Every ball Trea Turner hit this game, where it landed.

344'422'335'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

5 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP0 K104.2 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 4.7
PA 1 vs Ryan Gusto: single — 0.9 deserved basesPA 2 vs Ryan Gusto: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 3 vs Ryan Gusto: home run — 3.7 deserved basesPA 4 vs Dax Fulton: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 5 vs Pete Fairbanks: out — 0.1 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking47%

0.9 deserved bases on contact

Fastball33%

0.0 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed20%

3.8 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Ryan Gusto
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.6
Pete Fairbanks
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
Dax Fulton
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on loanDepot park.

Phillies26 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
344'422'335'
Marlins25 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
344'422'335'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. loanDepot park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information