Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Red Sox 78% · tied 9% · Mets 12%
Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.
Team comparison
Numbers flank the metric label; bars grow outward from center, scaled within each row.Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.
Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk), ranked top to bottom. Away grows left, home grows right.Grouped by team, longest first.
Bases each hitter created beyond what a freely-available bench bat would produce in the same plate appearances. Puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter on the same scale.
Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved (estimated bases). Unlucky bars grow left (deserved more than they got); lucky bars grow right. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.
Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk), most to least. Away grows left, home grows right.Grouped by team, longest first.
Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm, given the batters they faced. Starters and relievers are measured against role-appropriate baselines.
Each staff’s pitchers side by side. Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.
Red Sox pitchersMets pitchers
Bases allowed by pitch type
Estimated bases per ball in play by pitch type — how hard each pitch got squared up.
The dashed line is the game average (0.52 EB/ball); bars past it got hit harder than a typical ball tonight.
The number in parentheses is how many balls were put in play on that pitch group; click a bar to watch them.
Red Soxpitching
Sonny Gray0.31 EB/ball
Fastball (15)0.35
Breaking (3)0.05
Offspeed (1)0.35
Greg Weissert1.07 EB/ball
Fastball (4)1.07
Garrett Whitlock0.38 EB/ball
Fastball (4)0.27
Breaking (1)0.83
Tyron Guerrero0.45 EB/ball
Fastball (4)0.45
Metspitching
Nolan McLean0.56 EB/ball
Fastball (12)0.40
Offspeed (4)1.06
A.J. Minter0.98 EB/ball
Fastball (4)1.45
Offspeed (2)0.06
Cionel Pérez0.80 EB/ball
Fastball (1)1.81
Breaking (2)0.30
Kodai Senga0.05 EB/ball
Fastball (2)0.05
Xzavion Curry0.06 EB/ball
Breaking (1)0.06
FastballBreakingOffspeedGame avg
Pitching luck diagnostic
Each pitcher's net luck on contact: the bases their opponents' contact deserved (estimated bases) minus what actually scored off them. Unlucky bars grow left (bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in); lucky bars grow right (hard contact found gloves). Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.