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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 9, 2026
D-backs
3
Final
Padres
1
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"D-backs 59% · tied 19% · Padres 21%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
3
1
Est. bases
11.1
6.6
Total bases
11
6
Home runs
1
1
Barrels
1
1
Walks/HBP
2
3
Strikeouts
10
9
GIDP
0
2
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
6
2
Errors
0
0

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

D-backs
Padres
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

D-backs
Lucky
Unlucky
Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

D-backs
Padres
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

D-backspitching
Merrill Kelly7.0 IP · 24 BF · 6 K · 3 BB
1.5 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 14 pitches. 4 of his 12 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Curveball10 thrown (11% tonight, season 12%)
+0.2 bases cost
Cutter5 thrown (5% tonight, season 14%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Kevin Ginkel1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 11 pitches.

Paul Sewald1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Sweeper6 thrown (60% tonight, season 42%) · 3 whiffs
−0.9 bases saved
Padrespitching
Griffin Canning4.7 IP · 20 BF · 5 K · 0 BB
3.5 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.3 bases better than average on 18 pitches. 3 of his 7 whiffs came on the Slider.

Cutter7 thrown (9% tonight, season 7%)
+0.2 bases cost
Yuki Matsui1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
4.4 bases cost

The Splitter got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.4 expected bases. Struggled to find the zone (54% strikes).

Sinker2 thrown
0.0 bases
Bradgley Rodriguez1.3 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.7 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 9 pitches. Overall 1.7 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (18% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Wandy Peralta1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup8 thrown (44% tonight, season 34%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (11% tonight, season 17%)
0.0 bases
Adrian Morejon1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Changeup5 thrown (45% tonight, season 22%) · 2 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Slider2 thrown (18% tonight, season 17%)
+0.2 bases cost
Four-Seamer1 thrown (9% tonight, season 14%)
−0.3 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

D-backs
Lucky
Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Nolan Arenado hit it

Every ball Nolan Arenado hit this game, where it landed.

336'401'322'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.7 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA1 H0 BB0 HBP3 K101.1 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 4Deserved: 3.3
PA 1 vs Griffin Canning: strikeoutPA 2 vs Griffin Canning: strikeoutPA 3 vs Yuki Matsui: home run — 3.3 deserved basesPA 4 vs Adrian Morejon: strikeout
K
K
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking39%
Offspeed33%

3.3 deserved bases on contact

Fastball28%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Yuki Matsui
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.3
Griffin Canning
KK
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
Adrian Morejon
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Petco Park.

D-backs24 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
336'401'322'
Padres18 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
336'401'322'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Petco Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information