Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games

Padres at Giants · Sep 12, 2026

Padres
7
Final
Giants
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Padres 50% · tied 14% · Giants 36%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
7
6
Est. bases
17.1
20.5
Total bases
21
20
Home runs
2
4
Barrels
3
3
Walks/HBP
6
0
Strikeouts
4
8
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
3
0
Left on base
13
1
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Padres lead on deserved runs by 0.6.

Giants deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20+2-0.6-1
Padres deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Giants +1.4 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.4 deserved runs · actual Giants +2Through inning 2: deserved Giants +1.5 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Giants +1Through inning 3: deserved Giants +0.8 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.6 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved Giants +0.6 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Padres +1Through inning 5: deserved Giants +0.1 (80% band -3.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Padres +2Through inning 6: deserved Padres +1.8 (80% band -5.0 to +1.0) · this inning -1.9 deserved runs · actual Padres +3Through inning 7: deserved Padres +2.2 (80% band -6.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Padres +4Through inning 8: deserved Padres +0.1 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning +2.1 deserved runs · actual Padres +1Through inning 9: deserved Padres +0.6 (80% band -4.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Padres +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualGiants sidePadres side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Padres
Giants
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Giants
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Padres
Giants
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Padrespitching
Michael King7.0 IP · 25 BF · 4 K · 0 BB
1.5 bases cost

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.6 bases better than average on 32 pitches. The Sweeper got hit — 5 balls in play worth 7.6 expected bases.

Bradgley Rodriguez0.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
5.8 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. Overall 5.8 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Adrian Morejon1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker6 thrown (43% tonight, season 47%) · 2 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Four-Seamer4 thrown (29% tonight, season 14%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Slider2 thrown (14% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Mason Miller1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 13 pitches.

Slider4 thrown (24% tonight, season 50%) · 2 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Giantspitching
Cesar Perdomo4.7 IP · 26 BF · 3 K · 2 BB
0.2 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 35 pitches. The Changeup got hit — 12 balls in play worth 6.1 expected bases.

Joel Kuhnel1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
3.3 bases cost

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 10 pitches. Overall 3.3 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Curveball6 thrown (27% tonight, season 4%) · 1 whiff
+0.6 bases cost
Slider3 thrown · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup2 thrown (9% tonight, season 6%)
+0.1 bases cost
Reiver Sanmartin0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Jason Foley1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases saved

About an average night — −0.2 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Dylan Smith1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Splitter4 thrown (25% tonight, season 6%)
+0.3 bases cost
Carson Seymour1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.9 bases saved

About an average night — −0.9 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (18% tonight, season 18%) · 2 whiffs
−0.7 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Padres
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Giants
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Fernando Tatis Jr. hit it

Every ball Fernando Tatis Jr. hit this game, where it landed.

339'406'309'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.8 bases ahead of deserved.

6 PA2 H3 BB0 HBP0 K112.0 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 8Deserved: 7.2
PA 1 vs Cesar Perdomo: walkPA 2 vs Cesar Perdomo: walkPA 3 vs Cesar Perdomo: single — 0.2 deserved basesPA 4 vs Joel Kuhnel: home run — 3.9 deserved basesPA 5 vs Jason Foley: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 6 vs Carson Seymour: walk
BB
BB
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball46%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed38%

0.2 deserved bases on contact

Breaking15%

0.0 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Joel Kuhnel
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.9
Cesar Perdomo
BBBB
Actual
3.0
Deserved
2.2
Carson Seymour
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Jason Foley
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Oracle Park.

Padres37 BIP · 6 BB/HBP
339'406'309'
Giants26 BIP · 0 BB/HBP
339'406'309'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Oracle Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information