Carson Seymour
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Seymour is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.485 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 9th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (9th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
111 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Carson Seymour.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.7%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (29.8%)
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| Carson Seymour | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .613 | .527 | 9th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 11% | 9% | 22nd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 20% | 22% | 21st |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Carson Seymour mixes his sinker (31%) and slider (26%). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 0.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 61 bases vs a replacement arm's 57 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
11.2 bases cost vs league average, across 413 pitches — 2.7 per 100.
His splitter isn't in the charts below — only 14 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Rarely used: curveball (0%)
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his sinker tilts 27 points more toward righties.
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Carson Seymour's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His splitter isn't in these charts — only 14 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.509 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.489 to 0.532, based on 63 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.515 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.468 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.447 to 0.490, based on 49 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.612 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.612) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Carson Seymour.
over 79 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.63 · WHIP 1.67 · BABIP against 0.297 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs GuardiansAug 20, 2026
4 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +1.4
- vs RedsAug 24, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs D-backsAug 29, 2026
5 BF · 2 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.3
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs TigersAug 8, 2026
10 BF · 0 K, 3 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.3
- Above replacement
- +0.9
- vs NationalsJun 10, 2026
10 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 4.4
- Above replacement
- +0.8
Trends
Multi-season trends · Carson Seymour
HR allowed% down, BB% up, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, FB% against up, Pull% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.