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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Aug 7, 2026
Rockies
2
Final
Cardinals
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Rockies 46% · tied 18% · Cardinals 36%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
2
3
Est. bases
12.4
8.0
Total bases
13
8
Home runs
0
1
Barrels
2
1
Walks/HBP
1
5
Strikeouts
10
7
GIDP
2
0
Stolen bases
0
3
Left on base
7
7
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Rockies lead on deserved runs by 0.3.

Cardinals deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4-0.3+1
Rockies deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Cardinals +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Cardinals +0.6 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.5 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +1Through inning 3: deserved Cardinals +1.5 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +2Through inning 4: deserved Cardinals +0.1 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -1.4 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +1Through inning 5: deserved Rockies +0.2 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +1Through inning 6: deserved Cardinals +0.7 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.8 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +1Through inning 7: deserved Cardinals +0.4 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +1Through inning 8: deserved Rockies +0.2 (80% band -3.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.6 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +1Through inning 9: deserved Rockies +0.3 (80% band -3.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Cardinals +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualCardinals sideRockies side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Rockies
Cardinals
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Rockies
Lucky
Unlucky
Cardinals
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Rockies
Nick Frasso 3 BF
0.1
Cardinals
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Rockiespitching
Ryan Feltner5.3 IP · 24 BF · 2 K · 3 BB
even

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.5 bases better than average on 26 pitches. The Curveball got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.0 expected bases.

Brennan Bernardino0.7 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases cost

About an average night — +0.2 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sinker5 thrown (28% tonight, season 41%)
−0.1 bases saved
Cutter2 thrown (11% tonight, season 12%)
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (6% tonight, season 7%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Four-Seamer1 thrown (6% tonight, season 6%)
0.0 bases
Jimmy Herget1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Slider4 thrown (27% tonight, season 30%)
−0.2 bases saved
Changeup2 thrown (13% tonight, season 8%)
−0.1 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (13% tonight, season 9%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Sinker2 thrown (13% tonight, season 23%)
+0.2 bases cost
Nick Frasso1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Changeup1 thrown · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Cutter1 thrown
0.0 bases
Slider1 thrown
0.0 bases
Cardinalspitching
Kyle Leahy5.0 IP · 22 BF · 8 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 4.0 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Justin Bruihl1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Caleb Ferguson1.3 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Slurve4 thrown (17% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Ryne Stanek0.7 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.1 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters.

Splitter3 thrown (30% tonight, season 15%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Riley O'Brien1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Rockies
Lucky
Unlucky
Cardinals
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Willi Castro hit it

Every ball Willi Castro hit this game, where it landed.

351'401'345'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.6 bases behind deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP0 K110.8 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 3Deserved: 3.6
PA 1 vs Kyle Leahy: single — 0.7 deserved basesPA 2 vs Kyle Leahy: double — 2.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Justin Bruihl: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 4 vs Ryne Stanek: out — 0.0 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball46%

2.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed31%

0.7 deserved bases on contact

Breaking23%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Kyle Leahy
Actual
3.0
Deserved
3.5
Justin Bruihl
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
Ryne Stanek
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Busch Stadium.

Rockies25 BIP · 1 BB/HBP
351'401'345'
Cardinals22 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
351'401'345'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Busch Stadium — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information