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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Pirates at Nationals · Jul 5, 2026

Pirates
11
Final
Nationals
5
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Pirates 31% · tied 13% · Nationals 56%
How win probability is simulated
  • The simulator replays this game ten thousand times, re-rolling every batted ball from its exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle.
  • Walks, strikeouts and baserunning stay as they happened.
  • The share of replays each team wins is how often it "deserved to win," whatever the real scoreboard said.
  • The gray slice, when there is one, is the share of replays still tied after nine innings.

Team comparison

Both teams' bars grow from the left edge, and longer means more of that stat.

Runs
11
5
Estimated bases
15.7
16.8
Total bases
20
17
Home runs
2
2
Barrels
2
2
Walks/HBP
6
5
Strikeouts
11
3
Double plays hit into
1
1
Stolen bases
1
3
Left on base
7
8
Errors
0
1
How to read this chart
Longer means more of that stat. More is better for runs, bases, home runs, barrels, walks and hit-by-pitches, and stolen bases. More is worse for strikeouts, double plays (GIDP), runners left on base and errors.

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end, the Nationals lead on deserved runs by 0.3.

Nationals deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20+2+4+0.3-6
Pirates deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Nationals +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Nationals +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · actual Pirates +3Through inning 3: deserved Nationals +1.1 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · actual Pirates +2Through inning 4: deserved Nationals +1.1 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · actual Pirates +1Through inning 5: deserved Nationals +2.3 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Nationals +2.3 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · actual evenThrough inning 7: deserved Nationals +2.3 (80% band 0.0 to +4.0) · actual evenThrough inning 8: deserved Nationals +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · actual Pirates +4Through inning 9: deserved Nationals +0.3 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · actual Pirates +6123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualNationals sidePirates side
How to read this chart
The dark line adds up the simulator's “deserved” run differential, one inning at a time. Above the dashed line Nationals deserved the lead, and below it Pirates did. The darker band holds the middle 50% of simulations and the lighter band holds the middle 80%. The gray steps show the real score. The two numbers on the right are where each line finished.

Batting

Bases created

Bases created are estimated bases on contact plus one base per walk or hit-by-pitch.

Pirates
Nationals
How to read this chart
Each bar is one hitter, ranked from most bases created to least, and longer is better. The number under a name is his plate appearances (PA). Bars are grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Each bar shows how many more bases a hitter created than a free bench bat would have.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free. Each bar shows how many more bases a hitter created than that bench bat would have in the same plate appearances. Bars on the “Above replacement” side beat it, and bars on the “Below replacement” side fell short. Because every hitter is measured against his own baseline, a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter share one scale.

Hitter batted-ball luck

Each batter's net luck is his actual bases on contact minus what that contact deserved.

Pirates
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Nationals
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” bases are estimated bases, what contact like that usually earns wherever it lands. A bar to the right means he got more than his contact deserved, and a bar to the left means less. Tap a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Bases given up are estimated bases on contact plus one per walk, so lower is better.

Pirates
Nationals
How to read this chart
Each bar is one pitcher, sorted from most bases given up to least, and shorter is better. The number under a name is the batters he faced (BF). Bars are grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Each bar shows how many bases a pitcher saved compared with a free replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free. Each bar compares a pitcher with that arm facing the same batters, and a bar on the “Better” side means he allowed fewer bases than it would have. Starters and relievers get separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

The two staffs are compared row by row, and the longer bar is the bigger number.

How to read this chart
More is better for the pitchers on every row except walks and earned runs, where lower is better, and batters faced, which only counts the workload. Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see each pitcher’s line.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type earns bases saved or cost against an average pitcher in the same counts.

Piratespitching
Bubba Chandler4.0 IP · 21 BF · 0 K · 4 BB
1.8 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Curveball, with 3 balls in play worth 3.3 expected bases. He threw only 55% of his pitches for strikes.

Mason Montgomery1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

He faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer7 thrown (44% in this game, 46% this season) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Curveball3 thrown (19% in this game, 13% this season) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Isaac Mattson1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

He had about an average night, −0.5 bases against average over 4 batters.

Changeup4 thrown (33% in this game, 10% this season)
0.0 bases
Gregory Soto2.0 IP · 8 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
1.8 bases cost

His Slider was his best pitch, 1.7 bases better than average over 12 pitches. Hitters did their damage against his Sinker, with 3 balls in play worth 4.3 expected bases.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (7% in this game, 16% this season)
0.0 bases
Dennis Santana1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Slider, with 3 balls in play worth 3.2 expected bases. Overall, he was 1.6 bases worse than an average pitcher in the same counts.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (25% in this game, 27% this season)
−0.1 bases saved
Sinker1 thrown (6% in this game, 12% this season)
−0.1 bases saved
Nationalspitching
Cade Cavalli2.1 IP · 15 BF · 3 K · 2 BB
0.1 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Changeup, with 1 ball in play worth 2.4 expected bases. His Knuckle Curve was his best pitch, 0.7 bases better than average over 8 pitches.

Four-Seamer21 thrown (33% in this game, 33% this season) · 5 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Cutter6 thrown (10% in this game, 6% this season)
−0.2 bases saved
Eddy Yean2.0 IP · 7 BF · 3 K · 1 BB
1.7 bases saved

His Changeup was his best pitch, 1.7 bases better than average over 10 pitches. Overall, he was 1.7 bases better than an average pitcher in the same counts.

Slider4 thrown (14% in this game, 10% this season)
+0.2 bases cost
Four-Seamer3 thrown
−0.3 bases saved
PJ Poulin0.2 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases cost

He had about an average night, +0.1 bases against average over 4 batters.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (14% in this game, 30% this season)
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (7% in this game, 12% this season)
+0.1 bases cost
Orlando Ribalta1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

He faced only 3 batters. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Changeup5 thrown (38% in this game, 16% this season) · 3 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Four-Seamer2 thrown (15% in this game, 28% this season)
0.0 bases
Brad Lord1.1 IP · 9 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
3.0 bases cost

Hitters did their damage against his Four-Seamer, with 3 balls in play worth 4.3 expected bases. His Sinker was his best pitch, 1.0 bases better than average over 14 pitches.

Sweeper3 thrown (6% in this game, 13% this season)
+0.1 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (2% in this game, 5% this season)
+0.1 bases cost
Justin Lawrence1.2 IP · 7 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases cost

He had about an average night, +0.5 bases against average over 7 batters.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (8% in this game, 14% this season)
+0.3 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against an average pitcher in the same count. A strike, a whiff or weak contact beats that average, and a ball or hard contact falls short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher would allow, and “cost” means more, so saved is better.
  • The “Bases above replacement” board higher up measures the whole outing against a freely available fill-in arm, an easier bar, so the same outing scores a few bases better there.
  • Tap a pitch row to see the balls hit against it.

Pitcher batted-ball luck

Each pitcher's net luck is what his opponents' contact deserved minus the bases it got.

Pirates
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Nationals
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” bases are estimated bases on his opponents' contact. A bar to the right means he allowed fewer bases than that contact deserved. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in. Lucky means hard contact found gloves. Tap a pitcher to see his biggest luck swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what he actually did. The cards show every ball he hit or allowed, every pitch he saw or threw, and how he did against each opponent.

Where Dylan Crews hit it

Each dot is a ball Dylan Crews hit in this game, drawn where it landed.

336'406'335'
Est. baseslowhigh

Actual vs. deserved bases

He finished even with what his contact deserved.

4 PA1 H1 BB0 HBP0 K106.7 mph Hardest hit

Bases, running totalActual: 5Deserved: 5.0
PA 1 vs Bubba Chandler: out (0.1 deserved bases)PA 2 vs Bubba Chandler: walkPA 3 vs Mason Montgomery: out (0.0 deserved bases)PA 4 vs Gregory Soto: home run (3.9 deserved bases)
BB
How to read this chart
The solid line adds up the bases he actually got, one plate appearance at a time. The dashed line adds up what his contact deserved, with estimated bases on balls in play and one base for each walk or hit-by-pitch. When the solid line finishes higher, he got more than his contact earned. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Each bar is his share of pitches seen by type, with the deserved bases he got on contact.

Fastball61%

4.0 deserved bases on contact

Breaking39%

0.0 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Each row shows actual and deserved bases against one opponent, most deserved first.

Gregory Soto
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.9
Bubba Chandler
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.1
Mason Montgomery
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances. BB is a walk, HBP is a hit by pitch, K is a strikeout, and a dot is a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row. More bases is better for a hitter and worse for a pitcher.

Batted balls

These are all the balls put in play in this game, where each one landed, and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Each dot is one ball in play, split by team and drawn on Nationals Park.

Pirates28 balls in play · 6 walks or hit-by-pitches
336'406'335'
Nationals31 balls in play · 5 walks or hit-by-pitches
336'406'335'
Est. baseslowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
A bigger dot was hit harder. Color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate for an easy out to dark teal for home-run territory. Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. The Nationals Park outfield wall is drawn from its real dimensions.

The table opens on the game's most valuable batted balls, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Higher estimated bases means better contact. Tap a row for its outcome odds and a Savant video link. Show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution